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Wimbledon 2016: were the bookies right?

This time we analyze the betting lines for the Wimbledon 2016 and search for some tendencies that may bring us profit at the Wimbledon 2017. Bettors are strongly advised to consider this in their future analysis.

What did we notice at the Wimbledon 2016?

1. Djokovic keeps performing badly in the opening rounds. The Serb didn’t cover any handicap in the first three rounds and was defeated by Sam Querrey in the third one.

2. Lucas Pouille displayed fantastic tennis. In the first four rounds he was undervalued by 5.5 points in the least. It’s too much for grass matches! We also failed to get profit on it.

3. Albert Ramos-Vinolas played another good Grand Slam event. His results differed significantly from those predicted by the bookies.

4. Julien Benneteau is also undervalued. The 35-year-old French shows good tennis on grass. Hopefully, he will repeat it at the Wimbledon 2017.

And not let’s see if the bookies were mainly right or wrong in their Wimbledon predictions.

Let us remind you of our calculation rules.

1st column – round of the event;

2nd and 3rd columns – opponents;

4th column – final score;

5th column – real advantage;

6th column – pre-match handicap set by the bookies;

7th column – the difference between the real advantage and the bookies’ handicap prediction. The Wimbledon is played on grass and we set the difference at 4.0 points to determine badly predicted matches. The difference between 3.0 and 4.0 handicaps will greatly influence the betting odds.

As can be seen from the table, scenario of 44 matches (34%) was predicted wrong.

Round Player1 Player 2 Score Ad. Bookies Hcap Dif.
 1/64 N. Djokovic J. Ward 3:0 - 6/0; 7/6; 6/4. -9 -10 1
 1/64 K. Edmund A. Mannarino 0:3 - 2/6; 5/7; 4/6. -8 -3 5
 1/64 T. Bellucci R. Bemelmans 3:2 - 3/6; 6/4; 6/3; 1/6; 8/6. 1 -1,5 2,5
 1/64 L. Rosol S. Querrey 2:3 - 7/6; 7/6; 4/6; 2/6; 10/12. -6 -5 1
 1/64 P. Kohlschreiber P. Herbert 1:3 - 5/7; 3/6; 6/3; 3/6. -5 6 11
 1/64 D. Dzumhur D. Kudla 3:2 - 7/6; 7/5; 2/6; 1/6; 6/3. 3 6 3
 1/64 B. Klein N. Mahut 0:3 - 6/7; 4/6; 4/6. -5 -7 2
 1/64 D. Sela D. Ferrer 0:3 - 2/6; 1/6; 1/6. -14 -6 8
 1/64 D. Goffin A. Ward 3:0 - 6/2; 6/3; 6/2. -11 -8 3
 1/64 E. Vasselin T. Gabashwili 3:1 - 1/6; 6/3; 6/4; 6/4. -2 -1,5 0,5
 1/64 N. Almagro R. Dutra Silva 3:2 - 6/3; 7/6; 5/7; 3/6; 6/3. -2 -7 5
 1/64 D. Istomin K. Anderson 3:2 - 4/6; 6/7; 6/4; 7/6; 6/3. -3 4,5 7,5
 1/64 J. Sock E. Gulbis 3:0 - 6/4; 6/4; 6/4. -6 -3 3
 1/64 D. Schwartzman R. Haase 2:3 - 6/2; 2/6; 3/6; 6/2; 5/7. -1 -6,5 5,5
 1/64 A. Seppi G. Garcia-Lopez 3:0 - 6/2; 6/4; 6/0. -12 -5 7
 1/64 P. Carreno Busta M. Raonic 0:3 - 6/7; 2/6; 4/6. -7 -8,5 1,5
 1/64 R. Federer G. Pella 3:0 - 7/6; 7/6; 6/3. -5 -9 4
 1/64 M. Willis R. Berankis 3:0 - 6/3; 6/3; 6/4. -8 5,5 13,5
 1/64 D. Evans J. Struff 3:1 - 6/3; 6/7; 7/6; 7/5. -5 -1,5 3,5
 1/64 E. Donskoy A. Dolgopolov 1:3 - 2/6; 4/6; 6/3; 6/7. -4 -6 2
 1/64 G. Monfils J. Chardy 2:3 - 7/6; 0/6; 6/4; 1/6; 2/6. -12 3 15
 1/64 M. Jaziri S. Johnson 0:3 - 5/7; 6/7; 4/6. -5 -5,5 0,5
 1/64 B. Fratangelo G. Dimitrov 0:3 - 3/6; 4/6; 2/6. -9 -5 4
 1/64 J. Tipsarevic G. Simon 1:3 - 6/4; 4/6; 5/7; 3/6. -5 -5,5 0,5
 1/64 M. Cilic B. Backer 3:0 - 6/3; 7/5; 6/3. -8 -7,5 0,5
 1/64 S. Stakhovsky Y. Nishioka 3:0 - 6/3; 6/4; 6/4. -7 -5,5 1,5
 1/64 P. Lorenzi L. Lacko 1:3 - 4/6; 7/6; 5/7; 3/6. -6 -7 1
 1/64 B. Coric I. Karlovic 0:3 - 6/7; 6/7; 4/6. -4 -3,5 0,5
 1/64 P. Cuevas A. Kuznetsov 2:3 - 3/6; 6/3; 7/5; 3/6; 4/6. -3 1,5 4,5
 1/64 S. Giraldo G. Muller 2:3 - 6/4; 7/6; 6/7; 3/6; 13:15. -3 -6 3
 1/64 J. Benneteau I. Marchenko 3:0 - 6/4; 6/2; 7/6. -7 1,5 8,5
 1/64 S. Groth K. Nishikori 0:3 - 4/6; 3/6; 5/7. -7 -6,5 0,5
 1/64 D. Thiem F. Mayer 3:0 - 7/5; 6/4; 6/4. -6 -4 2
 1/64 J. Vesely I. Sijsling 3:0 - 6/2; 6/4; 7/6. -7 -1,5 5,5
 1/64 L. Saville D. Novikov 1:3 - 6/4; 4/6; 5/7; 4/6. -4 -3 1
 1/64 D. Tursunov J. Sousa 2:3 - 6/3; 6/7; 6/4; 3/6; 5/7. -1 -4,5 3,5
 1/64  A. Zverev P. Mathieu 3:0 - 6/3; 6/4; 6/2. -9 -6 3
 1/64 H. Zeballos M. Youzhny 1:3 - 4/6; 4/6; 6/3; 1/6. -6 -7 1
 1/64 B. Becker F. Bagnis 3:0 - 6/3; 6/3; 6/1. -11 -8 3
 1/64 I. Dodig T. Berdych 1:3 - 6/7; 7/5; 1/6; 6/7. -5 -6,5 1,5
 1/64 R. Bautista Agut J. Thompson 3:0 - 6/3; 6/3; 6/3. -9 -7,5 1,5
 1/64 M. Kukushkin M. Klizan 3:0 - 7/6; 7/6; 6/4. -4 -5 1
 1/64 G. Elias R. Albot 1:3 - 6/3; 2/6; 5/7; 4/6. -5 -5,5 0,5
 1/64 F. Verdasco B. Tomic 2:3 - 6/4; 3/6; 3/6; 6/3; 4/6. -3 -4 1
 1/64 L. Pouille M. Copil 3:1 - 6/4; 4/6; 6/4; 6/1. -7 2 9
 1/64 D. Young L. Mayer 3:1 - 6/4; 7/5; 3/6; 6/3. -4 -1,5 2,5
 1/64 S. Rober J. Del Potro 0:3 - 1/6; 5/7; 0/6. -13 -7,5 5,5
 1/64 T. Friz S. Wawrinka 1:3 - 6/7; 1/6; 7/6; 4/6. -7 -6 1
 1/64 R. Gasquet A. Bedene 3:0 - 6/3; 6/4; 6/3. -8 -7 1
 1/64 M. Granollers V. Estrella 3:1 - 6/2; 6/4; 2/6; 6/4. -4 -5 1
 1/64 V. Pospisil A. Ramos 1:3 - 4/6; 6/3; 3/6; 4/6. -4 5,5 9,5
 1/64 T. Lamasine V. Troicki 0:3 - 4/6; 2/6; 2/6. -10 -7,5 2,5
 1/64 J. Isner  M. Baghdatis 3:0 - 7/6; 7/6; 6/3. -5 -3 2
 1/64 A. Olivetti M. Barton 2:3 - 7/6; 6/7; 3/6; 7/6; 12/14. -4 -2,5 1,5
 1/64 T. Daniel J. Monaco 1:3 - 5/7; 6/4; 3/6; 2/6. -7 -6 1
 1/64 I. Cervantes J. Tsonga 0:3 - 4/6; 6/7; 4/6. -5 -7 2
 1/64 N. Kyrgios R. Stepanek 3:1 - 6/4; 6/3; 6/7; 6/1. -9 -5 4
 1/64 D. Lajovic D. Braun 2:3 - 6/4; 3/6; 6/3; 3/6; 4/6. -3 -7 4
 1/64 F. Delbonis F. Fognini 2:3 - 4/6; 6/1; 7/6; 2/6; 3/6. -3 -5,5 2,5
 1/64 R. Ram F. Lopez 0:3 - 6/7; 4/6; 4/6. -5 -5,5 0,5
 1/64 B. Paire  F. Skugor 3:2 - 3/6; 7/6; 2/6; 6/3; 10/8. 1 -4,5 5,5
 1/64 J. Millman A. Montanes 3:2 - 7/5; 4/6; 5/7; 6/4; 6/3. -3 -7,5 4,5
 1/64 Y. Lu A. Kudryavtsev  3:0 - 6/4; 6/1; 6/4. -9 -6,5 2,5
 1/64 L. Broady A. Murray 0:3 - 2/6; 3/6; 4/6. -9 -10 1
             
 1/32 N. Djokovic A. Mannarino 3:0 - 6/4; 6/3; 7/6. -6 -9 3
 1/32 T. Bellucci S. Querrey 0:3 - 4/6; 3/6; 2/6. -9 -5,5 3,5
 1/32 P. Herbert D. Dzumhur 3:1 - 3/6; 7/6; 7/6; 6/2. -3 -5,5 2,5
 1/32 N. Mahut D. Ferrer 3:0 - 6/1; 6/4; 6/3. -10 2 12
 1/32 D. Goffin E. Vasselin 3:0 - 6/4; 6/0; 6/3. -11 -6,5 4,5
 1/32 N. Almagro D. Istomin 0:3 - 4/6; 6/7; 2/6. -7 -4 3
 1/32 J. Sock R. Haase 3:1 - 6/1; 6/3; 6/7; 6/4. -9 -5,5 3,5
 1/32 A. Seppi M. Raonic 0:3 - 6/7; 4/6; 2/6. -7 -6 1
 1/32 R. Federer M. Willis 3:0 - 6/0; 6/3; 6/4. -11 -9 2
 1/32 D. Evans A. Dolgopolov 3:0 - 7/6; 6/4; 6/1. -8 4,5 12,5
 1/32 J. Chardy S. Johnson 0:3 - 1/6; 6/7; 3/6. -9 -2,5 6,5
 1/32 G. Dimitrov G. Simon 3:1 - 6/3; 7/6; 4/6; 6/4. -4 1,5 5,5
 1/32 M. Cilic S. Stakhovsky 3:1 - 6/2; 6/7; 6/4; 6/4. -7 -5 2
 1/32 L. Lacko I. Karlovic 3:1 - 6/3; 3/6; 7/6; 6/4. -3 4 7
 1/32 A. Kuznetsov G. Muller 3:0 - 6/3; 6/4; 6/4. -7 3 10
 1/32 J. Benneteau K. Nishikori 1:3 - 6/4; 4/6; 4/6; 2/6. -6 -7 1
 1/32 D. Thiem J. Vesely 0:3 - 6/7; 6/7; 6/7. -3 6 9
 1/32 D. Novikov J. Sousa 1:3 - 4/6; 4/6; 6/3; 4/6. -3 -3,5 0,5
 1/32  A. Zverev M. Youzhny 3:2 - 6/4; 3/6; 6/0; 4/6; 6/2. -7 -5,5 1,5
 1/32 B. Becker T. Berdych 0:3 - 4/6; 1/6; 2/6. -11 -7 4
 1/32 R. Bautista Agut M. Kukushkin   non-appearance Kukushkin  -  -   - 
 1/32 R. Albot  B. Tomic 1:3 - 6/7; 3/6; 7/6; 3/6. -6 -7,5 1,5
 1/32 L. Pouille D. Young 31:0 - 6/4; 6/3; 6/3. -8 -2 6
 1/32 J. Del Potro S. Wawrinka 3:1 - 3/6; 6/3; 7/6; 6/3. -4 3 7
 1/32 R. Gasquet M. Granollers 3:1 - 4/6; 7/5; 6/3; 6/1. -8 -7 1
 1/32 A. Ramos V. Troicki 3:2 - 3/6; 6/3; 6/3; 2/6; 6/3. -2 6 8
 1/32 J. Isner M. Barton 3:0 - 7/6; 7/6; 7/6. -3 -5,5 2,5
 1/32 J. Monaco J. Tsonga 0:3 - 1/6; 4/6; 3/6. -10 -6,5 3,5
 1/32 N. Kyrgios D. Braun 3:2 - 6/7; 6/1; 2/6; 6/4; 6/4. -4 -6 2
 1/32 F. Fognini F. Lopez 2:3 - 6/3; 7/6; 3/6; 3/6; 3/6. -5 -5 0
 1/32 B. Paire  J. Millman 1:3 - 6/7; 3/6; 6/4; 2/6. -6 2 8
 1/32 Y. Lu A. Murray 0:3 - 3/6; 2/6; 1/6. -12 -8 4
             
 1/16 N. Djokovic S. Querrey 1:3 - 6/7; 1/6; 6/3; 6/7. -4 7 11
 1/16 P. Herbert N. Mahut 1:3 - 6/7; 4/6; 6/3; 3/6. -3 -4,5 1,5
 1/16 D. Goffin D. Istomin 3:1 - 6/4; 6/3; 2/6; 6/1. -6 -6 0
 1/16 J. Sock M. Raonic 0:3 - 6/7; 4/6; 6/7. -4 -5 1
 1/16 R. Federer D. Evans 3:0 - 6/4; 6/2; 6/2. -10 -7,5 2,5
 1/16 S. Johnson G. Dimitrov 3:1 - 6/7; 7/6; 6/4; 6/2. -6 2 8
 1/16 M. Cilic L. Lacko 3:0 - 6/3; 6/3; 6/4. -8 -6,5 1,5
 1/16 A. Kuznetsov K. Nishikori 0:3 - 5/7; 3/6; 5/7. -7 -5,5 1,5
 1/16 J. Vesely J. Sousa 3:0 - 6/2; 6/2; 7/5. -10 -3,5 6,5
 1/16 A. Zverev T. Berdych 1:3 - 3/6; 4/6; 6/4; 1/6. -8 -4 4
 1/16 R. Bautista Agut B. Tomic 0:3 - 2/6; 4/6; 4/6. -8 1,5 9,5
 1/16 L. Pouille J. Del Potro 3:1 - 6/7; 7/6; 7/5; 6/1. -7 5,5 12,5
 1/16 R. Gasquet A. Ramos 3:1 - 2/6; 7/6; 6/2; 6/3. -4 -7 3
 1/16 J. Isner J. Tsonga 2:3 - 7/6; 6/3; 6/7; 2/6; 17/19. -3 -1,5 1,5
 1/16 N. Kyrgios F. Lopez 3:1 - 6/3; 6/7; 6/3; 6/4. -7 -4,5 2,5
 1/16 J. Millman A. Murray 0:3 - 3/6; 5/7; 2/6. -9 -8,5 0,5
             
 1/8 S. Querrey N. Mahut 3:0 - 6/4; 7/6; 6/4. -5 2 7
 1/8 D. Goffin M. Raonic 2:3 - 6/4; 6/3; 4/6; 4/6; 4/6. -1 -5 4
 1/8 R. Federer S. Johnson 3:0 - 6/2; 6/3; 7/5. -9 -5,5 3,5
 1/8 M. Cilic K. Nishikori 1:0 - 6/1; 5/1; retirement  -  -  -
 1/8 J. Vesely T. Berdych 2:3 - 6/4; 3/6; 6/7; 7/6; 3/6. -4 -5 1
 1/8 B. Tomic L. Pouille 2:3 - 4/6; 6/4; 6/3; 4/6; 8/10. -1 4,5 5,5
 1/8 R. Gasquet J. Tsonga 0:0 - 2/4; retirement  -  -  -
 1/8 N. Kyrgios A. Murray 0:3 - 5/7; 1/6; 4/6. -9 -6 3
             
 1/4 S. Querrey M. Raonic 1:3 - 4/6; 5/7; 7/5; 4/6. -4 -3,5 0,5
 1/4 R. Federer M. Cilic 3:2 - 6/7; 4/6; 6/3; 7/6; 6/3. -4 -4,5 0,5
 1/4 T. Berdych L. Pouille 3:0 - 7/6; 6/3; 6/2. -8 -5,5 2,5
 1/4 J. Tsonga A. Murray 2:3 - 6/7; 1/6; 6/3; 6/4; 1/6. -6 -6 0
             
 1/2 M. Raonic R. Federer 3:2 - 6/3; 6/7; 4/6; 7/5; 6/3. -5 2,5 7,5
 1/2 T. Berdych A. Murray 0:3 - 3/6; 3/6; 3/6. -9 -6 3
             
Final M. Raonic A. Murray 0:3 - 4/6; 6/7; 6/7. -4 -4,5 0,5

Relevant news:
Wimbledon final preview and prediction: Marin Cilic v Roger Federer
Wimbledon R4 Preview and Prediction: Milos Raonic v Alexander Zverev
Who has chances to win Wimbledon 2017?
Wimbledon R1 preview and prediction: Taylor Fritz v John Isner
US Open 2016: were the bookies right?



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