Juan Martin Del Potro v David Ferrer in the R3 of the US Open
Juan Martin Del Potro serves very big. The recent Olympics silver medalist has 67% of his first serve percentage and David Ferrer can stay unnoticed amidst an onslaught of Del Potro serves. If the Argentine keeps serving this way, he will have all chances to lift the grand slam title. As for the Spaniard, he displays nothing extraordinary in New York.
Betting pick: Selecting a betting line, Dotennis team prefers to bet at the negative handicap market on Del Potro. However, the Argentine’s serve will make lots of difference. Shall it be above 60%, Ferrer will struggle for a set. And if the Spanish player wins any set, the -7.5 handicap will be very challenging to cover. So generally the match isn’t bad for betting, but there are a number of bottlenecks to consider.
Nick Kyrgios v Illya Marchenko in the R3 of the US Open
Nick Kyrgios suffers hip issues, but keeps playing and, what is more important, playing consistently. This factor will matter a lot against Illya Marchenko. The 28-year-old Ukrainian has a big first serve with low percentage (above 50%). The handicap market is too risky this time.
Betting pick: We’d prefer the positive handicap as it’s very unlikely that Nick will convert more than one break point in every set. And shall the Ukrainian be the first to serve, the bet is likely to win.
Paolo Lorenzi v Andy Murray in the R3 of the US Open
Paolo Lorenzi has made surprising appearance in the third round due to his active winners in offense and Gilles Simon’s mistakes. That match cost Italian lots of efforts and now he’ll be totally fatigued going up against the most consistent returner on tour. But for active defense, Murray will attack his opponent and won’t let the Italian to show resistance. The only alarming fact is Murray’s nervousness that mars the Scot’s performance. Every mistake drives the Scot crazy and affects further rallies. Something has to be done about it.
Betting pick: Negative handicap looks profitable.
Kei Nishikori v Nicolas Mahut in the R3 of the US Open
We don’t take a liking to Kei Nishikori. Probably the Japanese saves his efforts for the next rounds. But sometimes the situation spins out of control and Kei starts making too many errors. Obviously, the tennis level will improve with every next round.
Up for him next is Nicolas Mahut who serves big and takes control over the ball. The French male is consistent and can take advantage in the rallies. Of course, Nishikori will appear on court as a favorite but the negative handicap isn’t highly promising. And there are no reasons to risk.
Joao Sousa v Grigor Dimitrov in the R3 of the US Open
First off, Souza is a fighter and can adapt to various conditions and opponents. Against Feliciano Lopez the Portuguese had advantage in rallies, which enabled him to win. Dimitrov won’t give Souza many winning options. Grigor is a better server. The Bulgarian moves better and attacks more efficiently. On the other hand, Joao’s fighting mood may destroy Grigor’s winning will.
Betting pick: better not to bet on this match.
Dominic Thiem v Pablo Carreno Busta in the R3 of the US Open
The further the event goes, the stronger Dominic Thiem looks on New York courts. The Austrian is well-rested and has regained his consistency. He plays powerful tennis and will benefit both on serve and with other key playing aspects.
Up for him now is Pablo Carreno Busta who has previously disposed of the fatigued Janko Tipsarevic. The longer the match will last, the fewer chances the Spaniard will have. Pablo has a poorer serve and will produce fewer active winners. We guess that the both will make mistakes, but Dominic Thiem should put an end to the underdog’s run.
Betting pick: Negative handicap on Thiem. We expect to see routine victory by the Austrian.
Dan Evans v Stan Wawrinka in the R3 of the US Open
Dan Evans has overcome the 27th seed Alexander Zverev. The German has definitely been out of his best form, but has managed to show mediocre tennis. Wawrinka will be a hard nut to crack. The Swiss is very inconsistent and he may either win big or put under question his further run. But Dan Evans isn’t the player to poke fun at. We tend to believe in Stan’s confident victory, but the handicap and total markets are very dangerous to bet at.
Betting pick: We advise to bet live. Wawrinka should take the beginning but then it’s better to back Evans at the odds of 15 and hedge the bet. Wawrinka is used to go down after the strong start.
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