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US Open 2016: were the bookies right?

Frosty winter days is good time for analytical mind work. This time we look back to the US Open 2016 and estimate how right the bookmakers were in their predictions. 

Let us remind you of our calculation rules.

  • 1st column indicates the round of the event;
  • 2nd and 3rd columns are mapped to the opponents;
  • 4th column is the final score;
  • 5th column is the real games advantage the winner got;
  • 6th column – pre-match games handicap set by the bookies;
  • 7th column – the difference. If it’s larger than 4.5 games it means that the line was poorly set up and had a great value for punters.

What tendencies have we discovered?

  1. Unlike the previous three grand slams, Novak Djokovic has covered the handicap in the opening round.
  2. Mikhail Youzhny showed very good performance, thus repeating the tendency of the previous years. Why so? The US Open takes place prior to two events in Russia (Youzhny’s homeland). The Russian player obviously prepares his best form for the home tournaments.
  3. Paolo Lorenzi was a big sensation of the US Open 2016. Who knows how deep he could have run if he wouldn’t face Andy Murray in the third round? We’ll keep an eye on the 36-year-oldItalian next year.
  4. The young American, Jared Donaldson, also surprised us. In the first round he overcame David Goffin and beat Viktor Troicki in the second round. This young gun from the USA is also worth watching after.
  5. Another American who shows decent results in the US Series is Ryan Harrison.
  6. Lucas Pouille maintained his high level of 2016. It’s very curious to know how he’s prepared for the next season.

If you analyze the table below, you’ll see that 47 matches out of 127 were wrongly predicted. Also, 10 matches ended up with the retirement, which is more than at the previous grand slams. And there’s no big surprise. The players got fatigued by the end of the season. While the big prize money (30000$ for the participation in the opening round) is worth suffering a bit.

Summing up, 47 matches of the 117 (=40%) were predicted by the bookies incorrectly and the betting lines were highly valuable! 

Join us and let's make the 2017 profitable together!

 

Round Player1 Player 2 Score Ad. Bookies Hcap Dif.
 1/64 N. Djokovic J. Janowicz 3:1 - 6/3; 5/7; 6/2; 6/1. -10 -9,5 0,5
 1/64 J. Vesely S. Myneni 3:2 - 7/6; 4/6; 2/6; 6/2; 7/5. -1 -5 4
 1/64 B. Fratangelo G. Pella 0:3 - 3/6; 4/6; 4/6. -7 3 10
 1/64 M. Youzhny M. Klizan 3:0 - 6/2; 6/1; 6/1. -14 1,5 15,5
 1/64 J. Isner F. Tiafoe 3:2 - 3/6; 4/6; 7/6; 6/2; 7/6. -1 -5,5 4,5
 1/64 J. Thompson S. Darcis 2:3 - 7/5; 6/3; 6/7; 4/6; 5/7. 0 -3,5 3,5
 1/64 L. Lacko E. Escobedo 2:2 - 4/6; 6/4; 6/4; 3/6; ret  -  -  -
 1/64 K. Edmund R. Gasquet 3:0 - 6/2; 6/2; 6/3. -11 6,5 17,5
 1/64 J. Tsonga G. Andreozzi 3:0 - 6/3; 6/4; 6/4. -7 -8 1
 1/64 J. Duckworth R. Haase 3:2 - 4/6; 7/5; 6/3; 4/6; 6/3. -4 -1,5 2,5
 1/64 V. Pospisil J. Kovalik 3:0 - 6/1; 6/3; 6/3. -11 -3 8
 1/64 Y. Nishioka K. Anderson 0:3 - 3/6; 5/7; 4/6. -7 -4,5 2,5
 1/64 J. Sock T. Friz 3:2 - 7/6; 7/5; 3/6; 1/6; 6/4. 3 -4,5 7,5
 1/64 A. Zverev P. Herbert 3:1 - 6/4; 7/6; 4/6; 6/0. -7 -1,5 5,5
 1/64 S. Stakhovsky G. Elias 3:2 - 6/1; 3/6; 2/6; 6/3; 7/6. -2 -2,5 0,5
 1/64 R. Dutra Silva M. Cilic 0:3 - 4/6; 5/7; 1/6. -9 -10 1
 1/64 R. Nadal D. Istomin 3:0 - 6/1; 6/4; 6/2. -11 -8 3
 1/64 S. Robert A. Seppi 1:3 - 2/6; 6/3; 4/6; 3/6. -6 -4 2
 1/64 T. Bellucci A. Kuznetsov 1:3 - 4/6; 6/3; 1/6; 6/7. -5 -3 2
 1/64 J. Benneteau A. Ramos 2:3 - 6/3; 3/6; 3/6; 6/2; 1/6. -4 -3 1
 1/64 L. Pouille M. Kukushkin 3:1 - 3/6; 6/2; 6/4; 6/2. -7 -6,5 0,5
 1/64 G. Clezar M. Chiudinelli 1:3 - 6/2; 6/7; 2/6; 4/6. -3 -1,5 1,5
 1/64 B. Backer F. Delbonis 2:3 - 6/3; 7/6; 4/6; 2/6; 2/6. -6 -2 4
 1/64 G. Garcia-Lopez R. Bautista Agut 1:3 - 5/7; 1/6; 7/6; 6/7. -7 -6 1
 1/64 G. Monfils G. Muller 3:0 - 6/4; 6/2; 7/6. -7 -5 2
 1/64 J. Satral M. Mcdonald 3:2 - 4/6; 3/6; 6/3; 6/2; 6/2. -6 -4 2
 1/64 M. Fucsovics N. Almagro 0:3 - 1/6; 4/6; 6/7. -8 -3,5 4,5
 1/64 D. Sela P. Cuevas 2:3 - 3/6; 2/6; 6/0; 7/5; 3/6. -2 -5 3
 1/64 B. Paire D. Lajovic 3:2 - 6/2; 2/6; 3/6; 7/5; 6/1. -4 -4 0
 1/64 M. Baghdatis F. Bagnis 2:0 - 6/4; 6/2; 1/1; ret.  -  -  -
 1/64 A. Mannarino R. Harrison 0:3 - 4/6; 6/7; 3/6. -6 -1,5 4,5
 1/64 D. Brown M. Raonic 0:3 - 5/7; 3/6; 4/6. -7 -7,5 0,5
 1/64 D. Thiem J. Millman 3:2 - 6/3; 2/6; 5/7; 6/4; 6/3. -2 -5,5 3,5
 1/64 R. Berankis M. Jaziri 3:1 - 3/6; 7/6; 6/4; 6/2. -4 4,5 8,5
 1/64 P. Carreno Busta I. Ivashka 3:0 - 6/0; 7/5; 6/2. -12 -6,5 5,5
 1/64 J. Tipsarevic S. Querrey 3:1 - 7/6; 6/7; 6/3; 6/3. -6 5 11
 1/64 S. Johnson E. Donskoy 3:2 - 4/6; 1/6; 7/6; 6/3; 6/3. 0 -7 7
 1/64 J. Del Potro D. Schwarztman 3:0 - 6/4; 6/4; 7/6. -5 -7,5 2,5
 1/64 T. Gabashwili F. Fognini 2:3 - 7/6; 6/3; 6/7; 5/7; 4/6. -1 -5 4
 1/64 A. Dolgopolov D. Ferrer 0:0 - 5/6; ret.  -   -   -
 1/64 N. Kyrgios A. Bedene 3:0 - 6/4; 6/4; 6/4. -6 -7,5 1,5
 1/64 H. Zeballos F. Mayer 3:0 - 6/3; 6/4; 7/6. -6 4 10
 1/64 I. Dodig I. Marchenko 1:3 - 3/6; 4/6; 7/6; 5/7. -6 -1,5 4,5
 1/64 D. Dzumhur B. Tomic 3:1 - 6/4; 6/3; 4/6; 7/6. -4 7,5 11,5
 1/64 А. A. Zverev D. Brands 3:1 - 3/6; 6/1; 6/4; 7/6. -5 -6,5 1,5
 1/64 D. Evans R. Ram 3:1 - 6/2; 4/6; 7/5; 6/1. -9 -4,5 4,5
 1/64 D. Kudla A. Giannessi 2:3 - 6/0; 4/6; 1/6; 6/1; 0/6. -2 4,5 6,5
 1/64 F. Verdasco S. Wawrinka 0:3 - 6/7; 4/6; 4/6. -5 -5 0
 1/64 K. Nishikori B. Becker 3:1 - 6/1; 6/1; 3/6; 6/3. -10 -10 0
 1/64 K. Khachanov T. Fabbiano 3:1 - 6/3; 6/3; 4/6; 6/3. -7 -4 3
 1/64 R. Harrison P. Mathieu 0:3 - 0/6; 2/6; 1/6. -15 -5,5 9,5
 1/64 N. Mahut P. Kohlschreiber 2:0 - 6/3; 7/5; ret.  -   -  -
 1/64 I. Karlovic Y. Lu 3:2 - 4/6; 7/6; 6/7; 7/6; 7/5. -1 -2,5 1,5
 1/64 D. Young J. Struff 3:1 - 6/3; 7/5; 4/6; 7/5. -5 -5 0
 1/64 V. Troicki R. Albot 3:2 - 5/7; 3/6; 6/4; 6/4; 7/6. 0 -7 7
 1/64 J. Donaldson D. Goffin 3:1 - 4/6; 7/5; 6/4; 6/0. -8 7 15
 1/64 F. Lopez B. Coric 0:0 - ret.  -   -  -
 1/64 V. Estrella J. Sousa 0:3 - 0/6; 1/6; 1/6. -16 -5 11
 1/64 M. Mmoch J. Chardy 0:3 - 4/6; 4/6; 1/6. -9 -7,5 1,5
 1/64 I. Cervantes G. Dimitrov 0:3 - 2/6; 4/6; 6/7. -7 -8,5 1,5
 1/64 G. Simon R. Stepanek 3:0 - 6/3; 6/1; 6/4. -10 -2 8
 1/64 C. Berlocq P. Lorenzi 0:3 - 4/6; 2/6; 1/6. -11 -3,5 7,5
 1/64 M. Granollers J. Monaco 3:0 - 7/6; 7/6; 6/4. -4 -2,5 1,5
 1/64 L. Rosol A. Murray 0:3 - 3/6; 2/6; 2/6. -11 -8,5 2,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic J. Vesely ret. J. Vesely  -  -  -
 1/32 N. Djokovic M. Youzhny 0:3 - 2/6; 1/6; 6/7. -10 -3,5 6,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic S. Darcis 3:1 - 6/3; 6/4; 6/7; 6/3. -7 -5,5 1,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic K. Edmund 0:3 - 5/7; 4/6; 4/6. -6 -6 0
 1/32 N. Djokovic J. Duckworth 3:1 - 6/4; 3/6; 6/3; 6/4. -4 -7,5 3,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic K. Anderson 0:3 - 6/7; 4/6; 4/6. -5 -5 0
 1/32 N. Djokovic A. Zverev 3:0 - 6/1; 6/1; 6/2. -14 -5,5 8,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic M. Cilic 0:3 - 1/6; 2/6; 3/6. -12 -7,5 4,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic A. Seppi 3:0 - 6/0; 7/5; 6/1. -13 -8,5 4,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic A. Ramos 3:0 - 7/5; 6/4; 7/6. -5 -2,5 2,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic M. Chiudinelli 3:2 - 4/6; 3/6; 7/6; 6/2; 6/0. -6 6 0
 1/32 N. Djokovic Bautista Agut 1:3 - 7/5; 2/6; 3/6; 2/6. -9 -7 2
 1/32 N. Djokovic J. Satral 3:0 - 7/5; 6/4; 6/3. -7 -9,5 2,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic P. Cuevas 3:0 - 7/6; 6/4; 7/6. -4 2,5 6,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic M. Baghdatis 1:3 - 2/6; 4/6; 6/3; 4/6. -5 -3,5 1,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic M. Raonic 3:1 - 6/7; 7/5; 7/5; 6/1. -8 6,5 14,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic R. Berankis 3:0 - 6/4; 6/3; 6/2. -9 -7,5 1,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic J. Tipsarevic 3:2 - 3/6; 4/6; 6/1; 6/4; 6/4. -4 -4,5 0,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic Del Potro 0:3 - 6/7; 3/6; 2/6. -8 -4,5 3,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic D. Ferrer 2:3 - 0/6; 6/4; 7/5; 1/6; 4/6. -9 -4,5 4,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic H. Zeballos 3:0 - 7/5; 6/4; 6/4. -6 -7 1
 1/32 N. Djokovic D. Dzumhur 3:0 - 6/2; 6/4; 6/3. -9 1,5 10,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic D. Evans 1:3 - 4/6; 4/6; 7/5; 2/6. -6 5 11
 1/32 N. Djokovic S. Wawrinka 0:3 - 1/6; 6/7; 5/7. -8 -9,5 1,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic K. Khachanov 3:1 - 6/4; 4/6; 6/4; 6/3. -5 -8,5 3,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic N. Mahut 0:3 - 4/6; 4/6; 2/6. -8 -3,5 4,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic D. Young 3:0 - 6/4; 7/6; 6/4. -5 -2,5 2,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic J. Donaldson 0:3 - 5/7; 3/6; 3/6. -8 2 10
 1/32 N. Djokovic J. Sousa 1:3 - 2/6; 4/6; 6/1; 5/7. -3 5,5 8,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic G. Dimitrov 2:3 - 6/4; 4/6; 6/3; 4/6; 2/6. -3 -5,5 2,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic P. Lorenzi 2:3 - 6/3; 2/6; 2/6; 7/6; 6/7. -5 6,5 11,5
 1/32 N. Djokovic A. Murray 0:3 - 4/6; 1/6; 4/6. -9 -9,5 0,5
 1/16 N. Djokovic M. Youzhny 0:0 - 4/2; ret.  -  -  -
 1/16 N. Djokovic K. Edmund 1:3 - 4/6; 6/3; 2/6; 6/7. -4 3,5 7,5
 1/16 N. Djokovic K. Anderson 3:0 - 6/3; 6/4; 7/6. -6 -3 3
 1/16 N. Djokovic M. Cilic 3:0 - 6/4; 6/3; 6/3. -8 5 13
 1/16 N. Djokovic A. Kuznetsov 3:0 - 6/1; 6/4; 6/2. -11 -7,5 3,5
 1/16 N. Djokovic Bautista Agut  3:2 - 3/6; 7/5; 2/6; 7/5; 6/1. -2 5,5 7,5
 1/16 N. Djokovic N. Almagro 3:0 - 6/4; 6/2; 6/4. -8 -6,5 1,5
 1/16 N. Djokovic R. Harrison 3:1 - 6/3; 7/6; 1/6; 6/1. -4 -2 2
 1/16 N. Djokovic P. Carreno Busta 3:1 - 1/6; 6/4; 6/4; 7/5. -1 -5,5 4,5
 1/16 N. Djokovic D. Ferrer 3:0 - 7/6; 6/2; 6/3. -8 -5,5 2,5
 1/16 N. Djokovic I. Marchenko 1:2 - 6/4; 4/6; 1/6; ret.  -  -  -
 1/16 N. Djokovic S. Wawrinka 2:3 - 6/4; 3/6; 7/6; 6/7; 2/6. -5 -7 2
 1/16 N. Djokovic N. Mahut 3:1 - 4/6; 6/1; 6/2; 6/2. -11 -7 4
 1/16 N. Djokovic J. Donaldson 3:0 - 6/4; 7/6; 6/3. -6 -2 4
 1/16 N. Djokovic G. Dimitrov 1:3 - 4/6; 1/6; 6/3; 2/6. -8 -5,5 2,5
  1/16 N. Djokovic A. Murray 1:3 - 6/7; 7/5; 2/6; 3/6. -6 -10,5 3,5
 1/8 N. Djokovic K. Edmund 3:0 - 6/2; 6/1; 6/4. -11 -8 3
 1/8 N. Djokovic J. Sock 3:1 - 6/3; 6/3; 6/7; 6/2. -9 -2 7
 1/8 N. Djokovic L. Pouille 2:3 - 1/6; 6/2; 4/6; 6/3; 6/7. -1 8 9
 1/8 N. Djokovic M. Baghdatis 3:0 - 6/3; 6/2; 6/3. -10 -6,5 3,5
 1/8 N. Djokovic J. Del Potro 0:1 - 3/6; ret.  -  -  -
 1/8 N. Djokovic S. Wawrinka 1:3 - 4/6; 1/6; 7/6; 3/6. -9 -7,5 1,5
 1/8 N. Djokovic I. Karlovic 3:0 - 6/3; 6/4; 7/6. -6 -4 2
 1/8 N. Djokovic A. Murray 0:3 - 1/6; 2/6; 2/6. -13 -6,5 6,5
 1/4 N. Djokovic J. Tsonga 2:0 - 6/3; 6/2; ret.  -   -  -
 1/4 N. Djokovic G. Monfils 0:3 - 4/6; 3/6; 3/6. -8 -6 2
 1/4 N. Djokovic S. Wawrinka 1:3 - 6/7; 6/4; 3/6; 2/6. -6 2,5 8,5
 1/4 N. Djokovic A. Murray 3:2 - 1/6; 6/4; 4/6; 6/1; 7/5. -2 7 9
 1/2 N. Djokovic G. Monfils 3:1 - 6/3; 6/2; 3/6; 6/2. -8 -6,5 1,5
 1/2 N. Djokovic K. Nishikori 3:1 - 4/6; 7/5; 6/4; 6/2. -6 2 8
Final N. Djokovic S. Wawrinka 1:3 - 7/6; 4/6; 5/7; 3/6. -6 4,5 10,5

 


Relevant news:
Citi Open semifinals previews: Anderson v Sock, Zverev v Nishikori
Antalya Open final preview and prediction: Adrian Mannarino v Yuichi Sugita
Gerry Weber Open R2 preview and prediction: Bernard Tomic v Richard Gasquet
ATP Gerry Weber Open preview
French Open SF preview and prediction: Stan Wawrinka v Andy Murray



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