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Roland Garros 2016: were the bookmakers right?

Today we analyze the betting lines at Roland Garros 2016 and search for interesting tendencies to make money on them in the upcoming year.

Let us remind you of our calculation rules.

1st column – round of the event;

2nd and 3rd columns – opponents;

4th column – final score;

5th column – real advantage;

6th column – handicap set by the bookies before the start of the match;

7th column – the difference between the real advantage and the bookies’ handicap prediction. If it’s larger than 5.5 (for clay matches) it means that the bookies weren’t precise in their predictions and the line could have been very valuable. Why 5.5? On clay, the difference between the 3.5 handicap and 4.5 is not that clear as on hard courts or on grass.

At Roland Garros 2016, bookmakers were completely wrong in 29% (38 matches out of 127). The first round brought many surprises. 25 matches out of 64 proved to be badly predicted. But at the same time there were a lot of matches bet at the odds of 10. Clay is a very mysterious surface at times.

What did we notice at the French Open 2016?

1. Novak Djokovic didn’t cover the handicap in the first three rounds but then easily defeated Dominic Thiem and Andy Murray in the semis and in the final match respectively.   

2. Malek Jaziri (as well as Stephane Robert) was highly underestimated in 2016.

3. The 27-year-old tennis player from Slovakia Andrej Martin surprised us. He entered matches as an underdog but managed to beat two players.

4. Ernests Gulbis from Latvia is a solid player on slow courts. The surface at the Roland Garros is very slow and the Latvian showed his best with the powerful forehand he possesses. If the Latvian will try to qualify for the Roland Garros 2017, then keep an eye on him.

5. Two Spaniards, Bautista Agut and Albert Ramos-Vinolas were set to show good performance at the grand slam event again. And while Bautista Agut was overestimated after the Australian Open, Albert Ramos could have brought profit at all grand slams.

Round Player 1 Player 2 Score Ad. Bookies' Hcap Dif.
 1/64 N. Djokovic Lu Yen 3:0 - 6/4; 6/1; 6/1. -12 -12,5 0,5
 1/64 M. İlhan S. Darcis 0:3 - 3/6; 4/6; 0/6. -11 -5,5 5,5
 1/64 G. Melzer A. Bedene 1:3 - 6/4; 3/6; 4/6; 4/6. -5 -4,5 0,5
 1/64 P. Carreno Busta F. Delbonis 3:1 - 7/6; 6/7; 6/4; 6/4. -4 3,5 7,5
 1/64 B. Tomic B. Baker 3:0 - 6/3; 6/4; 6/4. -7 -5 2
 1/64 B. Coric T. Fritz 3:0 - 6/3; 6/1; 6/3. -11 -5,5 5,5
 1/64 P. Mathieu S. Giraldo 3:2 - 6/4; 6/7; 6/4; 1/6; 6/3. -1 -3 2
 1/64 D. Tursunov R. Bautista Agut 0:3 - 3/6; 3/6; 1/6. -11 -10 1
 1/64 D. Ferrer E. Donskoy 3:0 - 6/1; 6/2; 6/0. -15 -9 6
 1/64 D. Istomin J. Monaco 1:3 - 6/3; 4/6; 3/6; 5/7. -4 -5,5 1,5
 1/64 V. Estrella I. Marchenko 3:0 - 7/5; 6/4; 6/3. -7 -4 3
 1/64 Fabiano de Paula F. Lopez 1:3 - 4/6; 4/6; 6/3; 2/6. -5 -5,5 0,5
 1/64 P. Cuevas T. Kamke 3:1 - 3/6; 6/2; 6/3; 7/6. -5 -8 3
 1/64 Chung Hyeon Q. Halys 0:3 - 1/6; 4/6; 4/6. -9 -2 7
 1/64 M. Jaziri F. Mayer 3:1 - 6/4; 3/6; 6/1; 6/2. -8 1,5 6,5
 1/64 V. Pospisil T. Berdych 0:3 - 3/6; 2/6; 1/6. -12 -8 4
 1/64 R. Nadal S. Groth 3:0 - 6/1; 6/1; 6/1. -15 -11,5 3,5
 1/64 F. Bagnis K. de Schepper 3:0 - 6/0; 6/2; 7/6. -11 -1,5 9,5
 1/64 N. Mahut R. Berankis 3:0 - 7/6; 6/2; 6/1. -10 -2,5 7,5
 1/64 M. Granollers F. Fognini 3:0 - 7/5; 6/4; 6/3. -7 4 11
 1/64 K. Anderson  S. Robert 1:3 - 4/6; 2/6; 6/1; 5/7. -3 4 7
 1/64 A. Zverev P. Herbert 3:1 - 5/7; 6/2; 7/6; 7/5. -5 -5 0
 1/64 T. de Bakker G. García-Lopez 1:3 - 4/6; 4/6; 7/5; 6/7. -3 -6 3
 1/64 I. Cervantes D. Thiem 1:3 - 6/3; 2/6; 5/7; 1/6. -8 -8 0
 1/64 D. Goffin G. Barrere 3:0 - 6/3; 6/3; 6/4. -10 -11 1
 1/64 P. Lorenzi C. Berlocq  0:3 - 3/6; 0/6; 2/6. -13 -1,5 11,5
 1/64 R. Ram J. Vesely 1:3 - 4/6; 4/6; 7/6; 0/6. -9 -6,5 2,5
 1/64 N. Almagro P. Kohlschreiber 3:1 - 5/7; 6/2; 6/2; 6/4. -8 4 12
 1/64 J. Sousa D. Dzumhur 3:1 - 2/6; 7/6; 6/4; 7/5. -1 -3,5 2,5
 1/64 A. Seppi E. Gulbis 0:3 - 3/6; 5/7; 4/6. -7 -1,5 5,5
 1/64 G. Muller M. Baghdatis 0:3 - 5/7; 4/6; 1/6. -9 -4,5 4,5
 1/64 J. Struff J. Tsonga 0:3 - 3/6; 4/6; 4/6. -7 -6,5 0,5
 1/64 M. Raonic J. Tipsarevic 3:0 - 6/3; 6/2; 7/6. -8 -8 0
 1/64 M. Kukushkin A. Mannarino 1:3 - 4/6; 6/2; 2/6; 4/6. -4 1,5 5,5
 1/64 A. Martin D. Munoz de la Nava 3:1 - 6/2; 6/3; 4/6; 6/4. -7 4 11
 1/64 J. Benneteau L. Pouille 1:3 - 3/6; 6/4; 4/6; 6/7. -4 -6,5 2,5
 1/64 J. Sock R. Haase 3:2 - 6/3; 7/5; 3/6; 6/7; 6/2. -5 -6,5 1,5
 1/64 D. Sela D. Brown 2:3 - 7/6; 4/6; 6/7; 6/4; 4/6. -2 -4 2
 1/64 A. Ramos H. Zeballos 3:1 - 6/3; 4/6; 7/5; 6/0. -9 -6,5 2,5
 1/64 M. Trungelliti M. Cilic 3:1 - 7/6; 3/6; 6/4; 6/2. -4 8,5 12,5
 1/64 G. Simon R. Dutra Silva 3:0 - 7/6; 6/4; 6/2. -7 -7,5 0,5
 1/64 D. Schwartzman G. Pella 1:3 - 2/6; 6/3; 2/6; 3/6. -8 -2,5 5,5
 1/64 D. Lajovic D. Kudla 3:0 - 6/4; 6/3; 6/3. -8 -3,5 4,5
 1/64 G. Dimitrov V. Troicki 2:3 - 6/2; 3/6; 7/5; 5/7; 3/6. -2 3 5
 1/64 J. Chardy L. Mayer 3:1 - 6/4; 3/6; 6/4; 6/2. -5 -2 3
 1/64 R. Carballes Baena A. Pavlasek 2:3 - 2/6; 6/4; 3/6; 6/1; 1/6. -5 2 7
 1/64 M. Klizan  T. Daniel 2:2 - 6/3; 6/4; 5/7; 4/6; 0/3 retirement  -  -  -
 1/64 L. Rosol S. Wawrinka 2:3 - 6/4; 1/6; 6/3; 3/6; 4/6. -5 -8 3
 1/64 K. Nishikori S. Bolelli 3:0 - 6/1; 7/5; 6/3. -10 -10 0
 1/64 A. Kuznetsov B. Becker 3:0 - 6/2; 6/2; 6/4. -10 -8,5 1,5
 1/64 I. Dodig M. Youzhny 3:2 - 6/4; 5/7; 7/5; 2/6; 6/3. -1 -3 2
 1/64 F. Verdasco S. Johnson 3:0 - 7/5; 6/4; 7/5. -6 -5 1
 1/64 N. Kyrgios M. Cecchinato 3:0 - 7/6; 7/6; 6/4. -4 -8,5 4,5
 1/64 A. Ungur I.  Sijsling 0:3 - 1/6; 2/6; 6/7. -10 2,5 12,5
 1/64 S. Querrey B. Fratangelo 1:3 - 3/6; 1/6; 7/6; 3/6. -10 4,5 14,5
 1/64 T. Bellucci R. Gasquet 0:3 - 1/6; 3/6; 4/6. -10 -6,5 3,5
 1/64 J. Isner J. Millman 3:1 - 6/7; 7/6; 7/6; 7/6. -2 -5,5 3,5
 1/64 N. Basilashvili  K. Edmund 1:3 - 6/7; 7/6; 5/7; 1/6. -7 -2,5 4,5
 1/64 T. Gabashvili D. Young 3:0 - 7/6; 6/2; 6/3. -8 -2 6
 1/64 R. Albot B. Paire  2:3 - 2/6; 6/4; 4/6; 6/1; 4/6. -1 -6,5 5,5
 1/64 I. Karlović A. Montanes 3:0 - 6/2; 7/6; 7/6. -6 1,5 7,5
 1/64 L. Djere J. Thompson 0:3 - 3/6; 4/6; 5/7. -7 3,5 10,5
 1/64 M. Bourgue J. Samper Montana 3:0 - 7/5; 7/6; 7/6. -4 -2 2
 1/64 R. Stepanek A. Murray 2:3 - 6/3; 6/3; 0/6; 3/6; 5/7. -5 -9 4
 1/32 N. Djokovic S. Darcis 3:0 - 7/5; 6/3; 6/4. -7 -11 4
 1/32 A. Bedene P. Carreno Busta 3:2 - 7/6; 6/3; 4/6; 5/7; 6/2. -4 6 10
 1/32 B. Tomic B. Coric 1:3 - 6/3; 2/6; 6/7; 6/7. -3 -6 3
 1/32 P. Mathieu R. Bautista Agut 0:3 - 6/7; 4/6; 1/6. -8 -7 1
 1/32 D. Ferrer J. Monaco 3:1 - 6/7; 6/3; 6/4; 6/2. -8 -5,5 2,5
 1/32 V. Estrella F. Lopez 0:3 - 3/6; 6/7; 3/6. -7 -4 3
 1/32 P. Cuevas Q. Halys 3:0 - 7/6; 6/3; 7/6. -5 -6,5 1,5
 1/32 M. Jaziri T. Berdych 1:3 - 1/6; 6/2; 2/6; 4/6. -7 -9 2
 1/32 R. Nadal F. Bagnis 3:0 - 6/3; 6/0: 6/3. -12 -11 1
 1/32 N. Mahut M. Granollers 0:2 - 3/6; 2/6; 0/1 retirement  -  -  -
 1/32 S. Robert A. Zverev 1:3 - 1/6; 6/3; 1/6; 4/6. -9 -5,5 3,5
 1/32 G. García-Lopez D. Thiem 0:3 - 5/7; 4/6; 6/7. -5 -6,5 1,5
 1/32 D. Goffin C. Berlocq  3:0 - 7/5; 6/1; 6/4. -9 -7,5 1,5
 1/32 J. Vesely N. Almagro 0:3 - 4/6; 4/6; 3/6. -7 -4 3
 1/32 J. Sousa E. Gulbis 0:3 - 2/6; 5/7; 3/6. -9 1,5 10,5
 1/32 M. Baghdatis J. Tsonga 2:3 - 7/6; 6/3; 3/6; 2/6; 2/6. -7 -7 0
 1/32 M. Raonic A. Mannarino 3:0 - 6/1; 7/6; 6/1. -11 -7,5 3,5
 1/32 A. Martin L. Pouille 3:0 - 6/3; 7/5; 6/3. -8 7 15
 1/32 J. Sock D. Brown 3:0 - 6/3; 7/6; 6/2. -8 -6 2
 1/32 A. Ramos M. Trungelliti 3:0 - 6/3; 6/4; 7/5. -7 -6 1
 1/32 G. Simon G. Pella 3:2 - 4/6; 1/6; 7/5; 7/6; 6/4. 2 -4,5 6,5
 1/32 D. Lajovic V. Troicki 1:2 - 7/6; 3/6; 0/6 retirement  -  -  -
 1/32 J. Chardy A. Pavlasek 3:0 - 6/4; 6/2; 6/4. -8 -7,5 0,5
 1/32 T. Daniel S. Wawrinka 0:3 - 6/7; 3/6; 4/6. -6 -9 3
 1/32 K. Nishikori A. Kuznetsov 3:0 - 6/3; 6/3; 6/3. -9 -7,5 1,5
 1/32 I. Dodig F. Verdasco 0:3 - 2/6; 1/6; 3/6. -12 -6 6
 1/32 N. Kyrgios I.  Sijsling 3:0 - 6/3; 6/2; 6/1. -12 -8,5 3,5
 1/32 B. Fratangelo R. Gasquet 0:3 - 1/6; 6/7; 3/6. -9 -8,5 0,5
 1/32 J. Isner K. Edmund 3:0 - 6/4; 6/4; 6/4. -6 -2,5 3,5
 1/32 T. Gabashvili B. Paire  3:1 - 6/3; 6/2; 3/6; 6/2. -8 4 12
 1/32 I. Karlović J. Thompson 3:2 - 6/7; 6/3; 7/6; 6/7; 12/10. -4 -3 1
 1/32 M. Bourgue A. Murray 2:3 - 2/6; 6/2; 6/4; 2/6; 3/6. -5 -11 6
 1/16 N. Djokovic A. Bedene 3:0 - 6/2; 6/3; 6/3. -10 -10,5 0,5
 1/16 B. Coric R. Bautista Agut 0:3 - 2/6; 3/6; 3/6. -10 -5 5
 1/16 D. Ferrer F. Lopez 3:0 - 6/4; 7/6; 6/1. -8 -6 2
 1/16 P. Cuevas  T. Berdych 1:3 - 6/4; 3/6; 2/6; 5/7. -7 -3 4
 1/16 R. Nadal M. Granollers withdrawal  -  -  -
 1/16 A. Zverev D. Thiem 1:3 - 7/6; 3/6; 3/6; 3/6. -8 -5,5 2,5
 1/16 D. Goffin N. Almagro 3:2 - 6/2; 4/6; 6/3; 4/6; 6/2. -7 -4 3
 1/16 E. Gulbis J. Tsonga 0:0 - 2/5 Tsonga retired  -  -  -
 1/16 M. Raonic A. Martin 3:0 - 7/6; 6/2; 6/3. -8 -9 1
 1/16 J. Sock A. Ramos 2:3 - 7/6; 4/6; 4/6; 6/4; 4/6. -3 3,5 6,5
 1/16 G. Simon V. Troicki 0:3 - 4/6; 2/6; 2/6. -10 5 15
 1/16 J. Chardy S. Wawrinka 0:3 - 4/6; 3/6; 5/7. -7 -6 1
 1/16 K. Nishikori F. Verdasco 3:2 - 6/3; 6/4; 3/6; 2/6; 6/4. 0 -6,5 6,5
 1/16 N. Kyrgios R. Gasquet 0:3 - 2/6; 6/7; 2/6. -9 1,5 10,5
 1/16 J. Isner T. Gabashvili 3:2 - 7/6; 4/6; 2/6; 6/4; 6/2. -1 -2,5 1,5
 1/16 I. Karlović A. Murray 0:3 - 1/6; 4/6; 6/7. -8 -6,5 1,5
 1/8 N. Djokovic R. Bautista Agut 3:1 - 3/6; 6/4; 6/1; 7/5. -6 -9 3
 1/8 D. Ferrer T. Berdych 0:3 - 3/6; 5/7; 3/6. -8 2 10
 1/8 M. Granollers D. Thiem 1:3 - 2/6; 7/6; 1/6; 4/6. -10 -7 3
 1/8 D. Goffin E. Gulbis 3:1 - 4/6; 6/2; 6/2; 6/3. -9 -5 4
 1/8 M. Raonic A. Ramos 0:3 - 2/6; 4/6; 4/6. -8 5,5 13,5
 1/8 V. Troicki S. Wawrinka 1:3 - 6/7; 7/6; 3/6; 2/6. -5 -7 2
 1/8 K. Nishikori R. Gasquet 1:3 - 4/6; 2/6; 6/4; 2/6. -8 4,5 12,5
 1/8 J. Isner A. Murray 0:3 - 6/7; 4/6; 3/6. -6 -6,5 0,5
 1/4 N. Djokovic T. Berdych 3:0 - 6/3; 7/5; 6/3. -8 -7,5 0,5
 1/4 D. Thiem D. Goffin 3:1 - 4/6; 7/6; 6/4; 6/1. -6 -3 3
 1/4 A. Ramos S. Wawrinka 0:3 - 2/6; 1/6; 6/7. -10 -7 3
 1/4 R. Gasquet A. Murray 1:3 - 7/5; 6/7; 0/6; 2/6. -8 -5 3
 1/2 N. Djokovic D. Thiem 3:0 - 6/2; 6/1; 6/4. -11 -7 4
 1/2 S. Wawrinka A. Murray 1:3 - 4/6; 2/6; 6/4; 2/6. -8 -1,5 6,5
Final N. Djokovic A. Murray 3:1 - 3/6; 6/1; 6/2; 6/4. -8 -5 3

 

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Relevant news:
2017 Roland Garros Preview
US Open 2016: were the bookies right?
Wimbledon 2016: were the bookies right?
Making use of the Australian Open 2016 betting lines
Top 10 ATP matches of 2016



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