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Making use of the Australian Open 2016 betting lines

We analyze the betting lines that were offered by the bookies at the previous Australian Open championship. We search for some tendencies that can be profitable at the next-year event. Let us remind you of our calculation rules.

1st column – match round;

2nd and 3rd columns – opponents;

4th column – final score;

5th column – real advantage;

6th column – handicap set by the bookies;

7th column – the difference. If it’s larger than 4.5 it means that the line was poorly set up and you could have gained much profit of it. By the way, the number of such matches at the AO championship last year made up 40 out of 127. It means that 30% of the matches were valuable.

Round Player 1 Player 2 Score Ad. Bookies’ Hcap Dif.
  1/64 N. Djokovic H. Chung 3:0 - 6/3; 6/2; 6/4. -9 -10,5 1,5
  1/64 Q. Halys I. Dodig 3:1 - 6/4; 6/7; 6/4; 7/5. -5 7,5 12,5
  1/64 F. Krajinovic D. Kudla  0:2 - 2/6; 0/6; 0/0 retirement. Refund - -
  1/64 T. Gabashvili A.     Seppi 1:3 - 6/3; 6/7; 4/6; 6/7. -1 -2,5 1,5
  1/64 I. Karlovic F. Delbonis  0:2 - 6/7; 4/6; 1/2 retirement. Refund - -
  1/64 J. Vesely R. Olivo 2:3 - 6/7; 6/2; 6/1; 4/6; 4/6. 4 7 3
  1/64 D. Donskoy I. Cervantes 3:1 - 6/4; 3/6; 6/1; 6/4. -6 -3 3
  1/64 V. Pospisil G. Simon 1:3 - 7/6; 3/6; 2/6; 4/6. -8 -3,5 4,5
  1/64 J. Tsonga M. Baghdatis 3:1 - 6/4; 4/6; 6/4; 6/2. -6 -6,5 0,5
  1/64 O. Jasika I. Marchenko 3:1 - 6/4; 3/6; 6/0; 6/4. -7 7,5 14,5
  1/64 P. Andujar P. Herbert 1:3 - 7/5; 4/6; 6/7; 2/6. -5 -3,5 1,5
  1/64 N. Rubin B. Paire 3:0 - 7/6; 7/6; 7/6. -3 8 11
  1/64 Garcia-Lopez P. Mathieu 3:0 - 6/4; 6/4; 6/4. -6 -4,5 1,5
  1/64 V. Estrella D. Brands 1:3 - 4/6; 6/7; 6/4; 1/6. -6 -4,5 1,5
  1/64 A.     Krajicek Di Wu 3:0 - 6/4; 6/1; 6/3. -10 -1,5 8,5
  1/64 P. Kohlschreiber K. Nishikori 0:3 - 4/6; 3/6; 3/6. -8 -6 2
  1/64 R. Federer  T. Basilashvili 3:0 - 6/2; 6/1; 6/2. -13 -10 3
  1/64 R. Berankis A. Dolgopolov 1:3 -1/6; 6/3; 4/6; 2/6. -8 -6,5 1,5
  1/64 J. Kovalik M. Trungelliti 0:3 - 4/6; 6/7; 5/7. -5 1,5 6,5
  1/64 P. Lorenzi G. Dimitrov 0:3 - 3/6; 6/7; 3/6. -7 -8,5 1,5
  1/64 D. Thiem L. Mayer 3:1 - 6/2; 7/6; 4/6; 7/6. -4 -3 1
  1/64 J. Benneteau N. Almagro 1:3 - 3/6; 7/6; 3/6; 6/7. -6 -6 0
  1/64 K. Edmund D. Dzumhur 2:3 - 6/1; 6/7; 6/4; 3/6; 1/6. -2 5,5 7,5
  1/64 S. Stakhovsky D. Goffin 1:3 - 6/3; 3/6; 4/6; 4/6. -4 -7,5 3,5
  1/64 M. Cilic T. de Bakker 3:1 - 6/7; 7/5; 6/2; 6/4. -7 -7,5 0,5
  1/64 S. Ramos B. Coric 3:0 - 6/2; 6/2; 6/3. -11 5,5 16,5
  1/64 D. Lajovic S. Querrey 2:2 - 6/7; 4/6; 6/4; 6/2 retirement. Refund - -
  1/64 M. Klizan Bautista Agut 2:3 - 2/6; 3/6; 6/4; 6/2; 2/6. -5 -7,5 2,5
  1/64 N. Kyrgios P. Carreno Busta 3:0 - 6/2; 7/5; 6/2. -10 -6,5 3,5
  1/64 Y. Nishioka P. Cuevas 0:3 - 6/7; 1/6; 4/6. -8 -3,5 4,5
  1/64 T. Haase M. Basic 0:3 - 6/7; 4/6; 4/6. -5 5 10
  1/64 Y. Bhambri T. Berdych 0:3 - 5/7; 1/6; 2/6. -11 -10,5 0,5
  1/64 R. Nadal F. Verdasco 2:3 - 6/7; 6/4; 6/3; 6/7; 2/6. -1 7 8
  1/64 B. Becker D. Sela 1:3 - 1/6; 3/6; 6/2; 2/6. -8 -1,5 6,5
  1/64 R. Harrison A. Kuznetsov 0:3 - 5/7; 4/6; 4/6. -6 -5 1
  1/64 E. Gulbis J. Chardy 2:3 - 5/7; 6/2; 7/6; 3/6; 11/13. -2 -4,5 2,5
  1/64 G. Monfils Y. Sugita 3:0 - 6/1; 6/3; 6/2. -12 -7,5 4,5
  1/64 M. Cecchinato N. Mahut 1:3 - 6/4; 2/6; 2/6; 2/6. -10 -8 2
  1/64 S. Robert B. Fratangelo 3:0 - 6/2; 6/2; 6/2. -12 -3,5 8,5
  1/64 R. Ram K. Anderson 2:2 - 7/6; 6/7; 6/3; 3/0 retirement. Refund - -
  1/64 M. Raonic L. Pouille 3:0 - 6/1; 6/4; 6/4. -9 -6,5 2,5
  1/64 M. Jaziri T. Robredo 2:3 - 5/7; 6/3; 6/4; 6/7; 6/8. 0 -6 6
  1/64 Gimeno-Traver T. Smyczek 1:3 - 1/6; 6/3; 3/6; 2/6. -9 -5,5 3,5
  1/64 D. Munoz-De La Nava V. Troicki 2:3 - 6/4; 6/4; 1/6; 6/7; 3/6. -5 -7 2
  1/64 J. Sock T. Fritz 3:2 - 6/4; 3/6; 0/6; 6/3; 6/4. 2 -4 6
  1/64 T. Daniel L. Rosol 2:3 - 6/7; 5/7; 7/5; 7/6; 1/6. -5 -4,5 0,5
  1/64 T. Ito R. Stepanek 1:3 - 4/6; 3/6; 7/6; 2/6. -8 -5,5 2,5
  1/64 D. Tursunov S. Wawrinka 0:2 - 6/7; 3/6 retirement. Refund - -
  1/64 D. Ferrer P. Gojowczyk 3:0 - 6/4; 6/4; 6/2. -8 -8 0
  1/64 J. Duckworth L. Hewitt 0:3 - 6/7; 2/6; 4/6. -7 -3 4
  1/64 T. Bellucci J. Thompson 3:0 - 6/2; 6/3; 6/2. -11 -4,5 6,5
  1/64 A. Bedene S. Johnson 0:3 - 3/6; 4/6; 6/7. -6 -3 3
  1/64 F. Lopez D. Evans 3:0 - 6/1; 6/0; 6/4. -13 -5,5 7,5
  1/64 S. Darcis G. Pella 2:3 - 6/2; 6/3; 3/6; 5/7; 1/6. -3 1,5 4,5
  1/64 M. Ebden M. Granollers 1:3 - 2/6; 6/4; 1/6; 4/6. -9 -4 5
  1/64 J. Janowicz J. Isner 0:3 - 3/6; 6/7; 3/6. -7 -4,5 2,5
  1/64 B. Tomic D. Istomin 3:1 - 6/7; 6/4; 6/4; 6/4. -5 -5,5 0,5
  1/64 S. Bolelli B. Baker 3:1 - 7/6; 7/6; 6/7; 7/6. -2 -9 7
  1/64 J. Millman D. Schwartzman 1:2 - 3/6; 5/7; 7/6; 5/0 retirement Refund  - -
  1/64 G. Muller F. Fognini 3:1 - 7/6; 7/6; 6/7; 7/6. -2 -2,5 0,5
  1/64 J. Sousa M. Kukushkin 3:0 - 6/3; 6/4; 6/3. -8 -2 6
  1/64 S. Giraldo D. Young 3:1 - 6/4; 1/6; 6/3; 6/2. -4 3,5 7,5
  1/64 A. Mannarino S. Groth 1:3 - 6/7; 4/6; 6/3; 3/6. -3 3 6
  1/64 А. Zverev A. Murray 0:3 - 1/6; 2/6; 3/6. -12 -9 3
  1/32 N. Djokovic Q. Halys 3:0 - 6/1; 6/2; 7/6. -10 -11,5 1,5
  1/32 D. Kudla A. Seppi 0:3 - 5/7; 4/6; 4/6. -6 -5 1
  1/32 F. Delbonis R. Olivo 3:2 - 7/6; 3/6; 6/7; 7/5; 6/2. -3 -5 2
  1/32 D. Donskoy G. Simon 2:3 - 3/6; 7/5; 6/7; 6/4; 5/7. -2 -7 5
  1/32 J. Tsonga O. Jasika 3:0 - 7/5; 6/1; 6/4. -9 -9 0
  1/32 P. Herbert N. Rubin 3:0 - 6/3; 6/4; 6/0. -11 -5 6
  1/32 Garcia-Lopez D. Brands 3:1 - 4/6; 6/1; 7/6; 6/3. -7 -4 3
  1/32 A. Krajicek K. Nishikori 0:3 - 3/6; 6/7; 3/6. -7 -8,5 1,5
  1/32 R. Federer  A. Dolgopolov 3:0 - 6/3; 7/5; 6/1. -10 -7,5 2,5
  1/32 M. Trungelliti G. Dimitrov 1:3 - 3/6; 6/4; 2/6; 5/7. -7 -8,5 1,5
  1/32 D. Thiem N. Almagro 3:0 - 6/3; 6/1; 6/3. -11 -4,5 6,5
  1/32 D. Dzumhur D. Goffin 1:3 - 4/6; 6/0; 4/6; 2/6. -2 -8,5 6,5
  1/32 M. Cilic A. Ramos-Vinolas 3:0 - 6/4; 6/3; 7/6. -6 -6,5 0,5
  1/32 D. Lajovic Bautista Agut 2:3 - 6/4; 2/6; 6/4; 2/6; 1/6. -9 -7,5 1,5
  1/32 N. Kyrgios P. Cuevas 3:0 - 6/4; 7/5; 7/6. -5 -7 2
  1/32 M. Basic T. Berdych 0:3 - 4/6; 0/6; 3/6. -11 -9 2
  1/32 F. Verdasco D. Sela 1:3 - 6/4; 3/6; 3/6; 6/7. -5 6 11
  1/32 A. Kuznetsov J. Chardy 3:0 - 6/4; 7/6; 7/6. -4 2 6
  1/32 G. Monfils N. Mahut 3:0 - 7/5; 6/4; 6/1. -9 -6 3
  1/32 S. Robert R. Ram 3:2 - 6/1; 6/7; 4/6; 7/5; 7/5. -6 -3 3
  1/32 M. Raonic T. Robredo 3:0 - 7/6; 7/6; 7/5. -4 -7,5 3,5
  1/32 T. Smyzcek V. Troicki 0:3 - 4/6; 6/7; 6/7. -4 -6 2
  1/32 J. Sock L. Rosol 0:3 - 6/7; 6/7; 3/6. -5 4 9
  1/32 R. Stepanek S. Wawrinka 0:3 - 2/6; 3/6; 4/6. -9 -7 2
  1/32 D. Ferrer L, Hewitt 3:0 - 6/2; 6/4; 6/4. -8 -7 1
  1/32 T. Bellucci S. Johnson 0:3 - 3/6; 2/6; 2/6. -11 -3 8
  1/32 F. Lopez G. Pella 3:2 - 7/6; 6/7; 7/6; 6/7; 6/4. -2 -7 5
  1/32 M. Granollers J. Isner 0:3 - 3/6; 6/7; 6/7. -5 -5,5 0,5
  1/32 B. Tomic S. Bolleli 3:1 - 6/4; 6/2; 6/7; 7/5. -7 -6,5 0,5
  1/32 J. Millman G. Muller 3:2 - 4/6; 6/4; 6/2; 4/6; 7/5. -4 5 9
  1/32 J. Sousa S. Giraldo 3:1 - 6/3; 7/5; 3/6; 6/1. -7 -4,5 2,5
  1/32 S. Groth A. Murray 0:3 - 0/6; 4/6; 1/6. -13 -8 5
  1/16 N. Djokovic A. Seppi 3:0 - 6/1; 7/5; 7/6. -8 -9,5 1,5
  1/16 F. Delbonis G. Simon 0:3 - 3/6; 2/6; 1/6. -12 -6 6
  1/16 J. Tsonga P. Herbert 3:0 - 6/4; 7/6; 7/6. -4 -6,5 2,5
  1/16 Garcia-Lopez K. Nishikori 1:3 - 5/7; 6/2; 3/6; 4/6. -3 -7 4
  1/16 R. Federer  G. Dimitrov 3:1 - 6/4; 3/6; 6/1; 6/4. -6 -6,5 0,5
  1/16 D. Thiem D. Goffin 1:3 - 1/6; 6/3; 6/7; 5/7. -5 3,5 8,5
  1/16 M. Cilic Bautista Agut 0:3 - 4/6; 6/7; 5/7. -5 5 10
  1/16 N. Kyrgios T. Berdych 1:3 - 3/6; 4/6; 6/1; 4/6. -2 -2 0
  1/16 D. Sela A. Kuznetsov 1:3 - 5/7; 6/3; 1/6; 6/7. -5 -4,5 0,5
  1/16 G. Monfils S. Robert 3:0 - 7/5; 6/3; 6/2. -9 -8 1
  1/16 M. Raonic V. Troicki 3:0 - 6/2; 6/3; 6/4. -9 -5,5 3,5
  1/16 L. Rosol S. Wawrinka 0:3 - 2/6; 3/6; 6/7. -8 -6,5 1,5
  1/16 D. Ferrer S. Johnson 3:0 - 6/1; 6/4; 6/4. -9 -6 3
  1/16 F. Lopez J. Isner 1:3 - 7/6; 6/7; 2/6; 4/6. -6 -2,5 3,5
  1/16 B. Tomic J. Millman 3:0  - 6/4; 7/6; 6/2. -7 -7 0
  1/16 J. Sousa A. Murray 1:3 - 2/6; 6/3; 2/6; 2/6. -7 -9,5 2,5
 1/8 N. Djokovic G. Simon 3:2 - 6/3; 6/7; 6/4; 4/6; 6/3. -5 -9 4
 1/8 J. Tsonga K. Nishikori 0:3 - 4/6; 2/6; 4/6. -8 -1,5 6,5
 1/8 R. Federer  D. Goffin 3:0 - 6/2; 6/1; 6/4. -11 -7,5 3,5
 1/8 Bautista Agut T. Berdych 2:3 - 6/4; 4/6; 3/6; 6/1; 3/6. -1 -5,5 4,5
 1/8 A. Kuznetsov G. Monfils 1:3 - 5/7; 6/3; 3/6; 6/7. -3 -5,5 2,5
 1/8 M. Raonic S. Wawrinka 3:2 - 6/4; 6/3; 5/7; 4/6; 6/3. -4 2 6
 1/8 D. Ferrer J. Isner 3:0 - 6/4; 6/4; 7/5. -6 -2,5 3,5
 1/8 B. Tomic A. Murray 0:3 - 4/6; 4/6; 6/7. -5 -7 2
 1/4 N. Djokovic K. Nishikori 3:0 - 6/3; 6/2; 6/4. -9 -6,5 2,5
 1/4 R. Federer  T. Berdych 3:0 - 7/6; 6/2; 6/4. -7 -6 1
 1/4 G. Monfils M. Raonic 1:3 - 3/6; 6/3; 3/6; 4/6. -5 -4 1
 1/4 D. Ferrer A. Murray 1:3 - 3/6; 7/6; 2/6; 3/6. -9 -6,5 2,5
 1/2 N. Djokovic R. Federer  3:1 - 6/1; 6/2; 3/6; 6/3. -9 -4,5 4,5
 1/2 M. Raonic A. Murray  2:3 - 6/4; 5/7; 7/6; 4/6; 2/6. -5 -4 1
Final N. Djokovic A. Murray  3:0 - 6/1; 7/5; 7/6. -8 -6 2

 

Now a couple of interesting observations from the Australian Open 2016:

1. Djokovic doesn’t live up to the expectations in the first three rounds usually. We’ll then analyze Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open but we guess that the situation will be much the same. Djokovic doesn’t cover the handicap at the start of the events.  

2. Stephane Robert was undervalued this season. The 36-year-old French male managed to get his career-best ranking. Unfortunately, our team also didn’t back up Robert. We hope that the tendency will preserve and we’ll get money out of it.  

3. Jack Sock finds it hard performing under hot weather conditions. Keep it in mind ahead of the Australian Open 2017.

4. Roberto Bautista Agut aims for the major events. But it’s important to catch the right moment as he doesn’t do his best in the beginning, but can surprise in the second week.  

5. Fernando Verdasco can survive only one tough match. He defeated his friend Rafael Nadal and then was beaten by Dudi Sela. And this is not the first time when Verdasco goes out of power after the big victory.

6. The Australian players are not motivated by the home crowd. Except for John Millman, who managed to keep all handicaps.

And yes, Gilles Simon was the only player who participated in three wrongly predicted matches. 

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US Open Preview and Prediction: Tim Smyczek v Jan-Lennard Struff.
Madrid Open R1 Preview and Prediction: Borna Сoriс v Pablo Carreno Busta.
Assessing Nadal vs The Field at the French Open
ATP Montpellier QF Preview and Betting Prediction: Andrey Rublev v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga


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