The both have met just two weeks ago when Nadal beat Thiem 6-4, 6-1 to lift the trophy in Barcelona. Today the situation will be even more favorable for the Spaniard as he has edged Novak Djokovic in the semis. The Serb has always been a very tough opponent for Rafa mentally and this categorical victory gives him lots of confidence. So now Nadal shall be in good mood aiming to close out the match.
No physical problems should stop him in securing the 5th Madrid title now as Nadal is near his best: good footing, powerful shots, accurate and high-quality serve.
Dominic Thiem has also been in superb form. But therein lies the problem. When Rafa shows his best tennis on dirt, it doesn’t actually matter what happens across the net. The mediocre speed of play will be comfortable for Nadal. Combining with his left-hand advantage, the chances of his victory will never be overestimated.
Betting pick: We believe Rafa will convert a break in every set. Backing him -4.5 games is the plan, however, the value is still minimal (Pinnacle offers 1.7 odds at the moment of writing).
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