Nadal is a true King of Clay at this tournament. He has a total advantage maybe for the first time in career. But we don’t understand, why he puts so much effort even when it’s clear he wins.
Let’s recollect his path to the final in Barcelona. In 1/16 he faced Carballes Baena and this was the only match where Rafa tried to save his effort. And in the rest of the matches he crushed his opponents, stopping only at the words: game, set, match. Yes, the event is held on clay, which requires to constantly press the enemy. But in our opinion Rafa goes too far and may have further troubles with any of his limbs. But Rafa is Rafa. Remember him playing at Shanghai and Beijing Masters that worsened the injury and made him miss half a yer at the ATP tour.
Tsitsipas has done a great job at this tournament. It was the best week in his career and he beat a number of decent enemies. The Greek doesn’t make mistakes, generates fast shots and moves reliably across the court. However all this won’t be enough against Nadal. Probably he will score some points on his serve, but only a few. Another problem to Stefanos will be mental pressure from the local audience. The young Greek is very unfortunate to play his first final on the stadium named after his rival. So probably Tsitipas will give up. Also technically Nadal will have advantage with his left hand.
Betting Pick: The bookies offer -6.5 game handicap on the Spaniard. It doesn’t seem to be valuable. So we don’t recommend to bet on it, just enjoy the match.
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