Statistics in tennis. How it helps when it comes to betting tips
In this article we’ll try to concentrate on how tennis stats can help us to be precise in our betting tips and to beat the bookies. Internet contains a vast array of articles concentrating on this topic, but most of them criticize statistics rather than teach how to deal with it. By the way, we’ve already written some words on how stats can be of help while choosing good betting tips.
Now let’s come closer to the case.
Statistics in tennis. Site
First consider head-to-head encounters. We use http://www.flashscore.com/tennis/. Choose the match you are interested in. Click on it and in the corresponding window pick up the H2H column. It will show you the statistics on head-to-head matches. Here we see the latest match results and to be more accurate in our analysis let’s consider the outcomes on different surfaces. This data is relevant to understand the current physical state of the players, how much time and at what tournaments they have spent on courts for the fortnight. By considering the outcomes of the matches where our selection has faced some top-ranked opponents we can easily make a judgment about the performance level he displayed. And, of course, head-to-head records. The correlation of these figures reveals whether the two players suit each other or no.
Then let’s take tennis stats for the year/for the whole period of time. Click here to find it. This info is rather interesting even if you bet with a friend, for example. Do you know for sure who has the most accurate serve or who is a better returner? All these facts are officially recorded and can be found on ATPworldtour resource. But we talk from the point. The first serve winning percentage, the second serve winning percentage, points won from the opponent’s serve will help us to get the idea of the strategy the tennis athlete is using: whether he prefers to attack or to defend, how successful his serve is and how good he is at returning his competitor’s serve.
Thus, if it is a rivalry between the players both of whom are not capable of winning a high percentage of points off their serve we can rightly expect a very tough struggle with a great number of rallies and tiebreaks. And all encounters between such attacking players would be very profitable but for the coin. Yes, a simple coin, the umpire tosses to determine who will serve first. And the outcome of matches between two powerful servers often depends on 1-2 breaks, but from the point of view of handicap it can be equal to +4 or +5 handicaps and the bookies are very professional at tracing it.
Be careful if you bet on a match between the opponents who are better at winning games from the rival’s serve than from their own one.
Let’s make it clear. Even tennis stats will be of no help if you try to make tips on the outcome of the match between two players who are good at returning the served balls but with a very weak own serve. We can only suppose that it would be a tough struggle rich in break points, but the final score will look like 6:2, 6:1. Usually such matches go under the following scenario: tough games on the serves by both players, long and powerful rallies. And then one of the competitors climbs down and losses 3-5 games in a row. And it can hardly be predicted in advance. So I advise you not to wager on the matches between the clay players, known for their good serve return, stable play from the baseline and a weak serve, especially avoid totals bets and handicaps. Live bets would be more preferable here.
Let’s take Fabio Fognini as an example. Either playing on clay courts or on hard surface, he is a master to win or to lose 5-6 games in a row. This emotional Italian male with a decent return and a poor serve is unpredictable on courts as he can do whatever is possible: cut his rival to pieces or lose to the most average opponents. Now let’s look into the matches played by athletes and make an accent on their age.
Statistics in tennis. Physical form
1. For aggressive players it is vital to take their winning path. Any player showing sharp attacking tennis with powerful strokes to the corners needs a lot of practice and self-confidence. Let’s recall how we bet it on Sharapova – Stevens match . Also keep in mind how long it took Del Potro to set his tennis back after the injury. 2 years! Serena also took her time searching for her tennis before she stated smashing all around. Noteworthy, that Serena make a decision to participate in Bastad tournament for the first time since 2009 after losing the Wimbledon in order to get back in form, tune in to the right and aggressive tennis and regain confidence. Self-confidence is a key to success for most aggressive tennis players’. And here tennis stats can be very helpful. You just analyze the number of recent victories, either consecutive or not so distant in time.
2. Then look for aggressive players who are currently not at the peak of their form. Here we use tennis stats in the following way: unforced errors column, double faults, 1st serve points won. If the first figures are high and the latter are insignificant – it’s a chance for you to gain some money. Especially, if in the next round our “bold” guy will play someone with a stable defense strategy.
Here is the list of the players which can be called on their aggressive tennis style:
Juan Martin Del Potro (has bad chances against fast opponents: Bautista Agut, David Ferrer).
Sabine Lisicki (not a very good backhand, due to which she is ousted on clay courts where you won’t pull it off with the powerful serve only).
Sam Querrey (as well as other representatives of the USA tennis school has inaccurate backhand and a good serve).
3. In any tournament there are ageing players and those who play heavy and efforts-consuming tennis with long rallies. So note down, that if any mature player has a number of consequent long-lasting matches or a young athlete plays several 5-set matches in a row – they become exhausted and we bet against them. This is an example of a bet based on the player’s fatigue.
Radek Štěpánek is probably the best example of such “old fellows”. His endurance allows him to play 1-2 tours and while the first round he plays on the top 4 level, the second one – on the level of the top 20, then the top 100. This trick can be a source of good money. At times Radek is undervalued due to his recent failures and then overvalued considering the outcomes of his first round.
So to date, these are our main tennis stats remarks. As soon as we find something more – we’ll tell you. To be continued.
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