Short betting odds
Betting at low odds
Let’s proceed with studying the theory of tennis betting. Previously we’ve talked about handicaps and totals markets. And in the next few articles we want to tell you about betting at different odds. Particularly in this one we’ll dwell on short betting odds.
First let’s agree on what short odds are and how they are expressed. Short odds shall be smaller than 1.5 (1/2 in fractions or -200 in money line odds). Betting at short odds means that you back the favorite and there will be a low return. Mathematically calculated winning chances with 1.5 odds are 66%. Thus, if you bet at 1.4 (2/5 in fractions or -250) odds your winning chances are 70%. The odds 1.7 (7/10 or -142) with possible winning outcome 60% cannot be classed among the low ones. So if you bet at 1.5 odds or smaller you select a short odds betting strategy.
Psychological aspect of low odds betting
From the psychological standpoint, short odds are very healthy for your psycho as you back the favorite and the positive outcome is very likely to come. At least, it sounds logical. So if you prefer this strategy, you’ll be a winning punter. For example, by an average, if you place ten 1.3 wagers, you’ll get seven positive outcomes and three negative. And you nervous system will be grateful to you. Moreover, betting on favorites will bring you a lot of pleasure as you’ll back such top players as Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, etc. Great! You back the best of the best and support your loyalty by you wagers. And one more good moment is that the series of losing bets will never last long with short odds. Sounds attractive, but…
Financial aspect of low odds betting
The main but is that this strategy will hardly bring you big money. To know why, please go on reading.
To fund their operation, the bookmakers need to adjust the odds and to apply the margins. And the bookmakers’ margins are positively related to the number of laid wagers. So the more evident the favorite is the larger margin will be priced.
Example: Let’s say that Murray is playing Verdasco.
Despite the actual winning chances, the bookies will lower the odds on Murray’s win. Thus, if we suppose that the Brit’s winning chances are 80% which corresponds to 1.25 odds, the bookies may offer you 1.15 odds or even 1.1. Especially, be it a Wimbledon match.
How can this fact be explained? As we’ve previously written in our article on the art of bookmaking, these guys want to get profit out of all events. To do this, the wagers placed on each event must be in proportion to the odds, considering the margin, of course.
Thus, in the abovementioned example, the real odds for Murray should be set at 1.25 and at 5 for Verdasco. But in this case all the British fans will support their native and will place, for example, 10 mln dollars. In case Murray wins, the bookies will get into trouble and will have to find 2,5 mln bucks to make all the payouts. Usually the payouts to successful punters are made at cost of the lost ones. But what if there were not enough bets on the Spaniard? To avoid this, the bookies will artificially decrease Murray’s odds and increase those for Verdasco. As a result, they’ll kill three (!) birds with one stone: the amounts of future payouts will drop, the number of those who’ll back Murray at such low odds will decrease and, finally, as you’ve already guessed, the number of Verdasco supporters will go higher.
Parlays and short odds
There is one more case when the favorites’ odds are lowered by the bookies. Parlay bets! Probably, parlays are the most efficient bookmakers’ tools of getting profit. And the reason is that the majority of ordinary punters know nothing about the sport they bet on. Their bankrolls are not huge, unlike the desire to win all and at once! And they apply parlays. We don’t doubt that most of you, our readers, already know what parlays are, but just to be on the safe side let us repeat it. A parlay bet is a selection of at least two wagers that are linked together. In order for your parlay to win, every leg of your parlay must win. The snag is that most of the parlays fans tend to multiply only favorites’ win (be it a tennis match, football or any other), without considering all other possible outcomes. They don’t take the trouble of analyzing all essential components and choose the easiest way out backing the favorite.
Or another scenario. Let’s say that you’re absolutely sure that Djokovic will outplay Federer at 1.6 odds. But it seems to you that 1.6 odds are very small and you make madness by adding another bet to your first selection. Let it be Sharapova’s probable win over Radwaanska at 1.25 odds. Now the picture looks much more attractive! We have no dull and boring 1.6 odds, but instead we bet at 2! (1.6 is multiplied by 1.25 = 2). It makes all the difference in the world! In such a case, a bettor usually thinks like this: Sharapova leads Radwanska in their head-to-heads and if the odds are set as 1.25, she must win the match!
The reality is that short odds come along with huge margin. What does this mean for us? It means that each time we place a short-odds wager we enrich the bookies with more profit than if we’ve chosen other odds. Don’t forget about constant desire to make long parlays where not only the odds are multiplied, but margin as well. You see that there is very little profit one can get on low odds. What is more, we’ve applied empiric method and found out that every 10th match can be won by any player no matter who is on the other side of the net.
So keep it in mind that the odds less than 1.1 cannot be beneficial for you. And 1.01 odds have no sense at all. So try to avoid low odds in betting.
Statistical conclusions in low odds betting
The conclusion is simple. If you take betting seriously and want to make money on it, be careful and don’t choose short odds offered by the bookies. Most of the tipsters you’ll come across never use the odds lower than 1.5, which points up financial inefficiency of these bets.
But nevertheless at some points you’ll have to use short odds. Thus, if you gamble on Betfair market, where the choice of handicaps and totals is very limited, you’ll have to adjust your bets considering your betting bankroll. For example, if you tend to place 5% of your bankroll, you’ll have to increase it up to 15-20% if betting at short odds. Also, if it’s hard for you to predict the run of the match but the win of the player is certain for you, we would advise to bet on the match winner at low odds rather than take risk and play handicaps or totals. Kei Nishikori is one of the players who come off victorious despite losing a great number of consequent games. So oftentimes we don’t touch totals and handicaps and bet on the Japanese’s victory.
There is another tricky moment we’d like to touch upon. If you are aware of playing peculiarities of such players as Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, Ernests Gulbis, Fabio Fognini, etc we advise you not to choose a pre-match line and bet on their win but rather play live. Your final profit will be more significant! That’ what we personally do.
Dotennis.net tries to avoid short odds. We’ve never used the odds smaller than 1.7. And to make our long story short, let us remind you that betting odds don’t reflect the real winning chances of the players, but the balance of wagers on either sides of event. So think twice before choosing low odds.
And now the animals teaching how to take a sheet off a hedge
Relevant articles:Answers to some questions: fixed matches, bets on totals, betting strategies
Dan Weston: Never let a bad run of results wipe you out.
How to consistently win at sports betting
Betting on qualifiers: better adaptation or accumulated fatigue?
Sports Betting: a real way of making money
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