Long odds betting strategies
Betting at long odds
In this article we’ve talked about short betting odds. Now we want to make clear all positive and negative sides of betting at long odds. To begin with, let’s understand what long odds are. Long odds are those bigger or equal to 4.0. The mathematically calculated winning chances of a player in this case make up about 25%. There also exist extra long odds which are higher than 10 and winning chances are less than 10%. It goes without speaking that there are exceptions to any rule, but generally the picture looks like we’ve outlined. Now let’s think how we can benefit from it.
Psychological aspect of betting at long odds.
If you’ve selected long odds strategy, arm yourself with patience and depressants. You’ll definitely need them both as you’ll lose a lot and only every 4th match will bring you profit. But in practice you’ll win even more seldom. As it’s very hard to catch 4.0 odds and more often it will be something in between 4 and 10. Be ready to go through long losing sessions. You might lose 8-10 consecutive matches and it’s really tough for any human being no matter how strong your psycho is. Your bankroll will also suffer a lot. As for your selections, usually you’ll back underdogs, not the top seeded Djokovic or Federer. Or at least, you’ll bet on the injured Djokovic which is also not the best investment for your nervous system.
Financial aspect of betting at long odds
Everything described above is the price you’ll pay for the rare winning bets which will not only put your bankroll to initial stake, but will multiply it and therefore will pay off spades. When we talked about the bookmakers’ job, we’ve stated that when betting on underdogs the bookies usually apply negative margin. And the size of the margin correlates with the fame of the players. Thus if, for example, Bautista Agut plays Borna Coric, the rising tennis star, the odds for Coric’s victory will be set at 5, especially be it a clay court in Spain. And in this case the odds reflect the actual winning chances of the both. But shall it be Stan Wawrinka, who has just lifted a title in Monte-Carlo, instead of Bautista Agut, the odds will be quite different: 1.07 for Wawrinka and 10 for Coric. And this is a potentially profitable encounter for the punters. As the real winning probabilities are almost the same as those with Bautista (20% against 80%), but the odds are set to mislead the bettors and can be interpreted as the winning probabilities are 7% against 93%. So you see that every 6th wager will reset your bankroll and even increase it. In terms of money, if you have put 50 bucks you’ll get a return of extra 250$.
Now we’ve come to one of the most important issues in betting at long odds. It’s the distance, or the run. The hypothetical confrontation of Stan Wawrinka and Borna Coric is a very rare occasion. It means that we have to bet more often to get any profit. And instead 20 bets a month offered by our dotennis service you’ll have to place 50 or even 100 wagers to cover the long-lasting losing sessions of 10 matches and more. We have no idea where one can get so many interesting matches, but that is where live bets will be helpful.
Why do we like live bets so much? Firstly, you can more matches by betting live than just waiting for the necessary outcome.
Example: Borna Coric plays Stanislas Wawrinka. You back young Coric at the odds 10. Suddenly the Croat breaks Stan’s serve at the beginning of the match. Consequently, the odds for Wawrinka have increased (from the initial 1.07 to 1.25, for instance). Very good! You, in your turn, replace 7 of your ordinary bets on Wawrinka, i.e. if you’ve initially put 50 bucks on Coric at odds 10 (with potential profit of 450 bucks), now you wager 50*7 (=350) bucks on Wawrinka at 1.25 odds (potential profit is 87.5). As a result, you close the match out victorious by any means: shall Coric win, you’ll get 100$ (450$ on Coric – 350$ on Wawrinka); shall the Swiss win, you’ll get 37.5$ (87.5$ for Wawrinka – 50$ placed on Coric). We hope that you were following us and understood how it works.
Now check your understanding and try to do our task: Nadal plays Brown. Before the match has started you’ve put 50$ on Brown at the odds 6. Shortly after Brown has broken Nadal’s serve, the odds for the Spaniard’s win has gained 1.5. How much should you bet to be one plus side?
The third point and the most important one when betting at long odds is the bankroll management. We advise our clients not to place more than 1% of their betting bankroll. Thus if you possess 300 bucks, don’t bet more than 30$ on a single event. Otherwise, you’ll get short of money very soon!
In reality the question is how long can you be self-disciplined and bet 1-2% of your bankroll in the long run waiting for the winning outcome? The situation reminds us of the uninhabited Sahara Desert. The genius of long odds is that only those who have big bankrolls may benefit from betting long. Nevertheless, if you learn betting live you may catch really appetizing matches with the odds of 5-6 and 30-40% winning chances. Of course, such encounters don’t take place very often, but they are really worthwhile. If you dispose of large bankroll, it will stay competitive even if you lose. And you will be able to recover it using more reliable investment strategies. The bettors whose bankroll is small we advise no to take great interest in long odds. As your pocket may get leaky soon and can reduce your bankroll to merely nothing in a short time.
The main difference between the professional punters and the amateurs is the following: professional ones try to minimize the influence of star power and take small winning steps in the long run. To do this one will need some basic skills and an average bankroll. Only the richest bettors may benefit from long odds.
Now let’s put it all together:
This type of betting to choose depends on certain circumstances. But remember that your nervous system may be really threatened. To maximize the profit, manage your bankroll and make use of live bets. Parlay bets don’t fall in the category of long odds. As they are never accompanied by a low margin we are looking for. Try not to bet at the odds of >100. They can be rarely found in tennis lines, but rare doesn’t mean never.
In this case you may across the odds of 400 on Borna Coric at Roland Garros. And you have to realize that his real winning chances are somewhere near 0 and minus infinity (they are significantly less than 0.01%). But the bookies offer the odds of 400 which is equal to 0.25%. So the bookies’ margin is very high.
On the other hand, speaking about the bets at the Grand Slam champions we have one question to ask a lot of punters: if you are so sure that, for example, Marin Cilic would win the Australian Open 2015, why not back him in every encounter in every round thus multiplying your profit? Your final payoff will be much bigger than that of one single bet! Let us illustrate it.
For example: Currently Marin Cilic’s winning chances at Australian Open are priced at odds of 21. If you place a bet of 100$ at the odds of 21 and your bet wins, you’ll get 2000$. Otherwise, you’ll lose 100$. But if you make a series of consecutive bets and place a wager of 100$ at the odds of 1.2 in the first round and then reinvestment the profit in the second rounds at the odds of 1.05, your final win will be much larger.
It is calculated as: 100*1,2 =120$, 120*1,05 =126,5$...
If it happens so that in the further rounds Marin Cilic will play Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal, the odds on the Croat’s win will be priced in the interval of 6-10 odds. So making these consecutive betting steps you actually bet at the odds 57, not 21.
It is calculated as: 1,2*1,05*1,4*1,5*2,7*4,0*2,0 = 57
Of course, it’ll bring you profit only if Marin Cilic lifts the trophy. If not, you’ll lose your 100$. All in all, these outright winner markets are made specifically for dummies or crazy humans (who at times include thee events into parlay bets). There are some exceptions, but their percentage is so small, that we won’t even stop to specify them.
Sometimes the bookies make fun and offer, let us say, the line to determine who’ll be beaten by Suarez next. And they set the odds of 500 at the Queen of Britain. But you are clever enough no recognize that it’s next to impossible and completely valueless. But, believe it or not, some guys will bet on this event and then will do their best to make it take place.
Pieces of advice for dessert
Consider the bets on the underdogs playing favorites after the Grand Slam events. For example, in 2014 the French Open champion Rafael Nadal arrived in Halle where he was upset by Dustin Brown. It is a very illustrative example when the favorite is tired and worn after the major event changes the surface with no proper trainings and his opponent outdoes himself. Brown’s odds were artificially overestimated and possessed big value.
Or take the Winston-Salem event which opens the US Open Series. It’s never lack surprises. Thus, in 2014 Tommy Robredo lost it in the first round to Nikolas Mahut who was priced at the odds of 5 before the match started.
So save your nerves and bet with us!) And have some rest watching how we may lose our profit by the example of a baby drinking water!
Relevant articles:Catch the break point to raise money on tennis
Betting lines. How to select the best one
Betting on tennis. Specifics of the grass court play
How to win at betting: odds fluctuations.
Sports Betting: a real way of making money
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