How to win at betting: odds fluctuations.
Why do betting odds change? How can an ordinary puntor take it to his advantage when betting at the betting agency? Opinions differ and there’s no single answer to these questions. Every puntor is likely to use his own techniques and methods to gain an edge over the bookies.
This article is the interview with the Favorite betting agency representative. During the talk we have covered the most popular issues to take into account when betting on sports. (All this may be attributed to any kind of sport, not just tennis).
Dotennis: Hello! To start with, tell us how the initial odds are calculated.
Bookie: Hello! Initial odds are calculated according to the given formula. The values are further adjusted given the situation and bookies’ expectations for the number of wagers on all possible outcomes of the match.
Our analytics are thoroughly examining all possible data on the upcoming event: statistics, head to heads, physical state of the opponents, their goals for the season, etc.
Actually, the bookies don’t care about the match outcome. The main objective is to get profit. That’s why the odds should be set in such a way that the handicappers won’t find extra value thus reducing the gains of the bookies. The odds seldom reflect the actual winning chances of the opponents, but rather the bettors' interest in any of the possible outcomes. For example, Djokovic plays the World No.300. The bookies can’t set the handicap odds at -3.5 on the Serb. As in this case, it’ll be a one-way bet. The bookies search for a golden middle to evenly distribute the players’ money. So in this case we’ll be offered something like -7.5 or -8.5 handicap and it’ll be much more difficult to decide which handicap to choose: positive or negative.
Dotennis: Do the bookies always try to find the balance according to the punters' expectations for the match outcome?
Bookies: Not always. Sometimes the match is so good that the bookies face the risk and back the favorite instead of representing the true probability of every outcome.
Betting agency isn’t just calculating stats and formulas; it’s gathering the most relevant data from a wide range of sources descending to agreements with other agencies, sports clubs, mass media, players’ agents and any other people who somehow communicate with athletes and possess any kind of information from the inside.
Let us say, a tennis player was seen hanging around late at night before his performance. Evidently, he will hardly be capable of showing his top tennis. Or, what matters more, someone got information about a player’s hidden trauma or injury. The bookies know how to use this info to their favor. It means that instead of 50/50 odds there’ll be 30/70 encoded.
Dotennis: What makes the betting line move?
Bookie: The majority of punters back their favorites. It means that a fan of Roger Federer will back Roger without considering his real odds. The British are more likely to back Andy Murray, the Americans – John Isner and so on and so force.
Indeed, patriotic moods don’t have to be neglected. Keep it in mind that most of the punters don’t aim for big profit. They are just backing their favorites and get pleasure from this process. This crowd is responsible for moving the public money in this or that direction. And as our main goal is to make profit we have to stay cool when making a betting decision.
Dotennis: Why is statistics important for punters?
Bookie: Statistically, if a player has a long winning session, he’s likely to be overestimated as many punters will be judged by the stats and back him.
Actually there are lots of punters who only rely on stats on the Internet when placing the wager. This strategy can be profitable but it shouldn’t be taken seriously as the only correct way to prevail. Statistical data is only one of the tools to analyze the current physical form of players or to consider their previous matchups. At the same time it will never tell you who is currently on his way up or who is losing his form due to accumulated fatigue. All in all, statistics is a piece of the puzzle, not the entire picture.
Dotennis: How do punters treat top players?
Bookie: ATP and WTA top players are often overestimated and are wrongly expected to show their best at minor events.
It goes without saying that top players are the most popular among the punters. But the latter often forget one simple truth: the players are humans prone to traumas and with their limits of forces. This implies that any top-ranked player can spend the entire season in one breath. Anyway, he has to sacrifice some of the events to display better tennis at other ones. And in most cases minor events are sacrificed at the altar of grand slams and masters titles. The vivid example is Stan Wawrinka. The Swiss has always been stuck to his season goals and therefore displays mediocre tennis at small tournaments. Surprisingly, but for many punters it’s a real problem. Many of them back top players at small starts before the Grand Slam events. And o course the money is lost! There are no top players that will show their best at ATP 250 if the French Open is to start soon!
To sum it up, we’d like remember once again about discipline. It means a lot in betting. Actually, it’s the most important thing you’ll need to find an edge and succeed in betting. Patience and discipline will help to get your value.
Stay tuned for Dotennis, master your gambling skills and make betting on tennis profitable!
The article was written with the support of https://favoritnr1.com/
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