Answers to some questions: fixed matches, bets on totals, betting strategies
What’s your attitude towards fixed matches?
The Internet is full of web sites selling fixed matches, especially football ones. We have already touched upon this topic in our article on how to select the best handicapper. We only smile at such proposals to make money fast and with no risk. First of all, even if fixed matches are played, it is done secretly with as few people aware as possible and without making much fuss.
People who possess real information about the organization of fixed matches will never reveal or advertise it. As they chance to get into the bookmakers’ black list. And even if they decide upon sharing this information with anyone, they won’t do it for 50-60$ online. That’s why fixed matches bets is a mere fraud. If you pay for them, the only thing you’ll get is a seller’s suggestions about some fix character of some match. By the way, have you ever wonder why most fixed bets are made on football? The answer is simple. In football it’s always possible to make excuses by saying that the match was fixed, but only some players were aware. Andy that guy who came off the substitutes’ bench and scored a goal was not in this list. Why was he fielded? No one expected him to score! You see that any failure may be explained. Sometimes it would be attributed to the judge’s mistake, etc. That’s why we’ve never come across fixed bets in tennis, where there are only two competitors involved. By the way, this is one of the main reasons why tennis betting is the most exciting kind of gambling to pound the bookies.
Boxing is probably the most predictable sport in terms of fixed betting. The fights where strong favorites lose it deliberately to young and promising underdogs are not rare. Their aim is to provide young players with the chance to progress in ranking and participate in serious matches.
Is it all applicable to tennis? Curious question. Perhaps all top players are involved into a global conspiracy to agree upon the distribution of major titles. We’d rather believe in fixed matches aimed at promotion of young and perspective junior players. Or fixed matches at challenger tournaments and minor ATP250 which are less popular and many matches are not videotaped. The profit of a win in any of this match may be times bigger than the win of the whole event.
Very likely, that some matches are fixed by the bookies.
But if you are engaged in sports predictions, you’d better separate yourself from thoughts about fixed matches. All the same, you can’t predict them.
Total bets. Why don’t you like placing bets on totals?
Why there are so few bets on totals you publish, - some of you may ask. Well, we tend to think that betting on over/under point total is an evil made to take many away from honest punters. We are talking about tennis now. And let us explain why.
The outcome of the most bets on total games depends on whether the 3rd set will be played or not. And this very fact is very hard to forecast. Even if you expect a close match with tough struggle, it doesn’t necessarily imply the 3rd set. Any equal match maybe closed up with 6:4, 6:4 on a scoreboard. By selecting a handicap bet, you define the course of the match: its eventual winner, possible breaks, etc. In case with totals you only try to guess if the 3rd set will be played or not. It works like a coin, and by tossing it the bookies get a 3-5% profit.
We’d also point out that bets on total number of games is reasonable in 5-set matches. So these matches can be predicted more easily. But there is another trouble. The Tennis Federation slowly surrenders them. If the worst comes to the worse, the situation will be the same as with snooker, where the winner is the first to win 4 frames. The duration is too short, anyone can come off victorious. Very likely that at grand slams the winner will be the first to take 2 sets instead of 3.
Which betting strategy to select?
There is a great number of strategies to select from. Backing favorites or underdogs, betting on totals or handicaps. Some tipsters are looking for falling odds and start betting at them. Many variants are possible.
But in our opinion they don’t work. Our opponents, bookmakers to be more precise, possess much more efficient mathematical tools than an average player can afford himself. Moreover, they have cool analytical specialists on hire. That’s why we don’t waste our efforts trying to outplay the bookies in their field. What we do is called value betting. We are searching for the defects in their lines. At times they can wrongly define a favorite or calculate faulty odds. Their analytics are human beings. Error is human, remember? So it’s possible to beat the bookies on single matches. That’s why the number of matches we bet on is significantly smaller than that of other analytics.
Another goldmine is bets made by other punters. Very often the crowd influenced by some reasons starts betting on the wrong competitor. As a result, the odds to his opponent get higher. It’s another possible way out for us to make a profit.
You see? We act like real detectives! Looking for draw backs and trying to benefit from them)
And for the finale a bit of black humor
Relevant articles:How to win at betting: odds fluctuations.
Betting on qualifiers: better adaptation or accumulated fatigue?
Algorithm of tennis matches analysis
Short betting odds
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