Algorithm of tennis matches analysis
Competent and successful analysis of any tennis match requires evaluation of separate components of the chosen event. We propose to single out and to give consideration to the following key points which are to be taken into account by and good tipster:
1. Physical state.
In tennis with two players on court physical state of both opponents is one of the most crucial points for analysis. Unlike most team games, such as football, where the fails of one single player are not so visible, as they can be made up for by his partners, the situation with tennis is quite different. For this reason, fatigue may become the main reason for an athlete not to show his best tennis and decrease his winning chances, despite the significant difference in ranking points. Let’s look at David Ferrer at the final tournament in London 2013: 3 losses in a group round - and all of them are attributable to cumulative fatigue acquired during the previous three weeks of intensive games preceding the final tournament.
Another vital element of physical state analysis lies in individual abilities of the players. For example, Richard Gasquet and Radek Štěpánek have lately contributed to our growing income. Why so? The reason is that these two are less sturdy in a round so it’s not difficult to predict when they run out. We’ve already mentioned this fact in our article on tennis statistics. On the contrary, such athletes as Ferrer, Nadal and Fognini always display exceptional stamina and thus make it hard to say when the quality of their tennis will fall down due to fatigue. That is to say, you should possess deep knowledge of individual physical characteristics of players to be competent in your tennis picks.
2. Analysis of the players’ current condition.
Whatever people say, tennis tips are a very delicate thing. That’s why good predictions can’t do without constant viewing of plays and acquiring deep knowledge of the current situation: who is at the pick of the form and who is out of his rhythm. Statistics alone will make no difference. The latest and up-to-date information is a source to really big money.
3. Head-to-head records.
It’s an extremely important component of tennis matches analysis which shall never be neglected. Get used to watch head-to-heads if you want to take advantage of bookmakers. Every athlete has so called “troublesome” rivals. Very often there may be a great difference in ranking between the two. For Federer it’s Nadal, for Nadal – Djokovic, for Murray – Wawrinka, this list is endless. The troubles can be explained by the rival’s troublesome style of playing or psychological fear of the opponent, or by a combination of both. Nevertheless, never neglect the analysis of these meetings.
4. Analysis of statistics.
What are the main things to pay attention to when analyzing stats of the match? First and foremost, consider the service game quality: the percentage of playable first serves, the percentage of second serve points won. As a rule, if a player has a high percentage (50 and more) of points won at his second serve it speaks either for his good physical state or his rival’s poor condition. Also, if a player had a statistically complicated match with many errors but still won it with the first serve percentage less than 40% we can easily predict that in the next match he’ll show a better tennis, as it’s unlikely that his serve will get worse. Needless to say, that we’ve singled out only some aspects in this section of tennis matches analysis.
5. Type of court surface.
Different players play differently on different surfaces. “Clayers” perform better on slow courts, “servers” – on fast ones. There are also many all-courts athletes showing good results on any type of courts. Thus, a “server’s” winning chances against “clayer’s” on clay courts will be very shadow. The above is also true if a “clayer” faces a “server” on a fast court. Sometimes it’s more useful to consider the players’ specialization with no regard to their ranking. It’s also worth paying attention to head-to-head encounters: if, for instance, one opponent leads with a 4:0 advantage in h2h meetings, but all victories were achieved on a suitable surface, these victories will become irrelevant when the surface is changed. We consider it to be a very important moment.
6. Supposed improves and declines in form.
It’s the most profitable and, at the same time, the toughest of all components. Our main goal is to back the player when he is in his top form and to bet against him when he shows decline. Only then our winning chances will be high. It may sound like a matter of course but let me give an example. There is a whole constellation of athletes who perform well only during some periods of the season. Among them are Marcel Granollers and Nicolás Almagro who find it impractical to appear in their top form on hardcourt tournaments, as they would never show their best tennis on this kind of surface. So these players schedule their training to be capable of delivering their best tennis during the clay season.
At times, the most profitable part of any clay season is its start. The reason is that players who showed perfect results at the beginning of the hard season also have good chances (by bookmaker) at the beginning of the clay season. As a rule, the players’ current form here doesn’t matter and it is a great pleasure to analyze these matches. In contrast to such events when the “clayers” losing everything and to everyone start beating all around on their favorite clay. If you note these peculiarities you can make good money.
With no question, there are a number of factors which are a little bit dual and difficult in perception so we won’t load you with this information. For the beginning, the above mentioned tips would be more than enough to make a proper analysis of any tennis match.
During major tournaments or if you happen to have no time to watch the matches of your interest, such service as http://www.flashscore.com/tennis/ may be of help. It contains short reviews of plays which help to analyze the current form of the players.
You may also watch matches offline on YouTube.
Official site http://www.atpworldtour.com/ also contains a lot of practical data. And we can’t but mention our website http://dotennis.net/. It’s regularly updated and is full of helpful information for tennis matches analysis.
To conclude with, we’d like to say that successful tips are a hard job. So if you don’t have enough time or efforts to consider the above mentioned points, do not place your bets on sport events. Better save your money and your nerves to spend them more efficiently. Or make use of the capper’s services. Ours, for example).
Good example of how physical condition affects the match:
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